A number of NL10 hands - do we always need to get it all in?

[AceLosesKing]

Hand 1: draws galore!

Villain is 20/13/1.7 over 130h. Seemed to be pretty standard.

Comments for the flop please. I think I really should be folding this pre, but I get too attached to these hands. I think opening this is acceptable. Of course we lose a ton of equity on any turn if we miss, and the hand essentially turns into a c/f.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($14.41)
BB ($18.66)
Hero (UTG) ($10.85)
MP ($13.40)
CO ($10.25)
Button ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 10
Hero bets $0.40, 1 fold, CO raises $1.20, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.80

Flop: ($2.55) Q, K, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1.70, Hero raises $4.60, CO raises $7.35 (All-In), Hero calls $4.45

Turn: ($20.65) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($20.65) 2 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $20.65

Results:
Hero had 9, 10 (one pair, nines).
CO had A, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: CO won $19.28

Hand 2: overpair BvB

Villian is 13/12/--/21 over 61h. Don't remember anything about the villain before this hand.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($10)
Hero (BB) ($16.36)
UTG ($10.15)
MP ($6.27)
CO ($8.82)
Button ($19.15)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, 10
4 folds, SB bets $0.35, Hero raises $1.30, SB calls $1

Flop: ($2.80) 5, 7, 3 (2 players)
SB checks,

Hero ???

Hand 3: nut flush draws!

Villain is 19/12/2.8/47 over 99h. Seemed to be pretty aggressive in the few hands we played before this one. Should we be raising this flop or flatting?

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($10)
MP ($10.34)
Hero (Button) ($15.32)
SB ($10)
BB ($10.83)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, A
[color=#666666]1 fold, MP bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Flop: ($0.75) 4, 8, 5 (2 players)
MP bets $0.75

Hero ???

[muzzington]

Do you think a full pot bet is the guys normal continuation bet? (In hand 3.)

[Garth Kay]

Hand 1:

I like your line. I love those flopped draws like that and I would just look to ship as much in on the flop as possible.

Sometimes I might be the first to move all in here rather than three bet, I would prefer to three bet shove.

Hand 2:

I would normally bet half to 3/4pot 60% and check this flop 40% of the time. Villain isn't opening many hands and he is opening this one. I know you have the majority of his range beaten by that flop.

I would check to induce a bet from SB if he is thinking his pockets are good on this board or his Big Ace is good. Of course if paint or an ace lands on that turn I become concerned and would probably look to check call, check fold the river.

Also depending on my table image I would still look to cbet this flop, simply because I cbet almost 80% of flops where I have opened pre and not betting in this situation would set alarm bells off in a thinking villains head more than it would make him think it is safe. I would almost be inclined to bet 1/4 to half the pot to see if I can induce a spew/spaz from villain.

Hand 3:

Call on this flop. If you think you are beating his range here on this board then you should be three betting pre in position. I like to smooth this flop and make any plays on later streets if it bricks.

So call flop, evaluate turn and possibly call turn, bet fold river.

[bennymacca]

hand 1

in general, i dont like hand 1, purely because your outs aren't always clean, and your outs aren't to the nuts. villain can easily wind up with [ah] [th] or [ah] [jh] or [ah] [qh] here, in which case you are crushed.

if he has something like AK with just the [ah], your outs dont give you a lock on the hand either - he could always re-suckout with the better straight or flush. even though your outs are potential action killers as well, i think calling and playing poker on the turn is the way to go.

garth/aaron, what are your thoughts on this?

hand 2
i think i check back and play poker on later streets. as garth said, his 3bet calling range is pretty strong on that board. assuming his 3bet calling range includes pp and AK/AQ, you aren't beating much on a board like that.

hand 3.

once again, smooth calling is the way to go. yes, your hand has a ton of equity, but he has led full pot probably so you dont get odds to draw. but in general, there aren't many bad turn cards for you except for an off diamond king. all else and you either hit your winning hand, or you could get him to fold out a ton of stuff that beats you.

[bennymacca]

the more i think about hand 1, the more i dont like it. by shoving i dont think we fold out much of his 3bet range. at all, save for AQ and JJ really. 99-TT are unlikely because we have blockers.

even if we keep all unsuited cards in his range on the flop, it doesnt look great

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

57,420 games 0.002 secs 28,710,000 games/sec

Board: Qd Kh 8h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.436% 57.33% 00.10% 32921 58.50 { 88+, ATs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.564% 42.46% 00.10% 24382 58.50 { Th9h }



if we remove the off suit hands that haven't hit the board and its about 58.4% to 41.6%

[bennymacca]

Ok, working out the pot odds, i might have changed my mind a bit.

assuming we have 42% equity in this hand,

EV = 0.42(9.05+2.4) - 0.58(9.05) = -0.44

so this is bloody close really.


meh thats close enough to gambool i think , especially if we think we have an ounce of fold equity. but i think it has to be a shove instead of a standard raise.


in general though, i am not sure about calling the 3bet when you are only 100bb deep. i used to do this all the time, but since i have started folding these types of hands, i think it has been for the better, because you get in spots like this where you have to flip, and its a high variance play. at 10NL, you dont really need the swings that playing like this can produce.

if we were 200bb deep, then i think the call is completely fine. and i think standard raising the flop is fine also.

[bennymacca]

this is aaron and my conversation on msn, which i think sums the hand up ok as well. well at least my thoughts on it.

- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:19 AM):
Ok, so what alternativeines do you suggest.
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:20 AM):
*alternative lines.
Ben says (12:21 AM):
just worked out teh pot odds, assuming he always gets it in after cbetting, which is prolly a decent assumption, and EV is -$0.44. so this is really close actually

meh gambool
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:22 AM):
Lol ohhhh now you're all for it.
Can you agree that if we c/c and miss it's a c/f turn?
Ben says (12:22 AM):
i did't HATE the play, just didnt like it

yeah its def c/f turn if you call flop. which is kinda weak, if you are calling with 9Thh, you kinda want a flop like this
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:25 AM):
Yeah. Is calling pre fine?
Opening even.
Ben says (12:26 AM):
opening fine, callign prolly not. i have become a lot tighter in that respect lately, i used to call this all the time, but now i fold.

if you get an awesome flop like this, you are still flipping, which means its a high variance play, something that isn't really needed at 10NL
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:27 AM):
True, true.
Ben says (12:28 AM):
i think we really need to focus on value only plays at these stakes
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:30 AM):
Yeah.
Not only, but yeah def the majority
Ben says (12:32 AM):
yeah. like 99%. even if it means you sacrifice a couple of bb in win rate, it means you will be less swingy, which means you should get out of 10NL more predictably if that makes sense.

i.e your win rate was prolly 15bb/100 theoretically, the way you played, but becasue its swingy, you can go on huge downswings. but if you cut out these flip type hands, you might only go at 10bb, but it will be

Ben says (12:33 AM):
less swingy, so it means even if you have a bad run, you shoudl lose less and therefore move up quicker in general
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:33 AM):
Good point.
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:34 AM):
I did miss a lot of these gutshot flush draws/pair flush draws hands
I am down 20 but I should be up 30.
Ben says (12:35 AM):
yeah so in EV terms, you are -20, but should be +30, but if you cut out these type of hands, you might be +15.

not as good for your win rate, but definitely good for your psyche because it means you can put together winning weeks/months easier. not sure about you, but i would rather win 50 a week then 100 one week and -50 the next, even though the outcome is the same
- Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaron - says (12:36 AM):
Yeah, def z

[gmatical]

Hand #1

You pretty much got what you wanted here so, in my opinion, when you have so many draws - in it goes.

His actions suggest a made hand, your draw should be good if it comes home, shame it didn't.

I don't like the 3 bet call pre much.

Hand #2

Lead out and take it down (potish bet). If called, keep leading but fear overcards that lead to re-raises.
Hopefully he hit the board. Don't let him get free cards to beat you later on.

Hand #3

3 bet - fold to a shove. If 4 bet, i probably call and see the turn (amount pending). If a diamond or A hits they often represent it and you can nail them. Some fear the A against possible AK, but I doubt AK calls a 3 bet on flop.

If no diamond, A or Q and his aggression continues - I fold.

The safe route is an option too, but if you hit you most likely win a small pot. By 3 betting, if you hit you win a huge pot - but the 3 bet may take it on the flop anyway. In a cash game with over 11 outs and a likely payday if I hit... i bloat the pot abit (sometimes to my peril, sometimes to my glory).

[bennymacca]

Hand #1

You pretty much got what you wanted here so, in my opinion, when you have so many draws - in it goes.

His actions suggest a made hand, your draw should be good if it comes home, shame it didn't.

I don't like the 3 bet call pre much.

agree with this

Hand #2

Lead out and take it down (potish bet). If called, keep leading but fear overcards that lead to re-raises.
Hopefully he hit the board. Don't let him get free cards to beat you later on.

not sure about this. if he has hit this board, we are in a world of trouble, be will have a set like 99% of the time if he has hit this board. i dont think he as A7 very much at all.

Hand #3

3 bet - fold to a shove.

have to disagree with you here. out of all the options you have for this hand, this is by far the worst. you are basically turning your hand into a bluff, which is just silly given the huge equity we have. if you are raising this flop i think you have to get it in (which isn't bad at all i dont think)

still though, i think flatting and playing poker on the turn is a better option.

The safe route is an option too, but if you hit you most likely win a small pot. By 3 betting, if you hit you win a huge pot - but the 3 bet may take it on the flop anyway. In a cash game with over 11 outs and a likely payday if I hit... i bloat the pot abit (sometimes to my peril, sometimes to my glory).

building the pot is definitely a good idea in general, i agree with this. but we cant build the pot only to fold when our equity is highest

[gmatical]

not sure about this. if he has hit this board, we are in a world of trouble, be will have a set like 99% of the time if he has hit this board. i dont think he as A7 very much at all.

Sorry, re-read that hand, and agree.

However, it is not likely he has hit this flop often is it?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm its tough with middle pair. But I s'pose leading still gets us information to decide actions and give you a chance to take it if he has Ax and decides not to keep going.