10NL Thin Value Bet on the River?

[bennymacca]

ok, how would you play AA in the same situation if you were the villain?

AA and KK are squarely in the villains range still

[AceLosesKing]

Check it back, he has AA/KK more than he has 99/TT here, and he will not be folding those hands.

He would have to be a retard of epic preportions if the above statement is true.

AK was his most likely holding by a mile IMO.

I like the shove. I really think you knew this in your gut but took the safe road for reasons only you know (perhaps getting beaten in similar hands previous to this).

The likelihood that he has better holdings then you is slim, but if he has - it will cost you dearly. But isn't this the case with all tough poker decisions ? Isn't this why we get that sick feeling in our gut that we love & hate - the feeling that is tangled up in the beauty of wagering money on incomplete information?

You have most of his likely holdings beat, get as much $$ in as you can.

What.

Why does he only have Ace King here.

Aces and Kings are 3 betting pre, they are leading the flop and the turn. It is being played exactly the same way (bar the turn bet being larger, pretty clear sign he has a missed AK w/ the half pot bet).

[maccatak11]

AK was his most likely holding by a mile IMO.

I like the shove. I really think you knew this in your gut but took the safe road for reasons only you know (perhaps getting beaten in similar hands previous to this).

The likelihood that he has better holdings then you is slim, but if he has - it will cost you dearly.

I knew someone would post something like this AFTER the results have been mentioned. If you say that his most likely holding is AK, you also have to state WHY you think this. Reading is not guessing a hand, but narrowing a range - you have not done this here.

If we are certain he has AK here, the only reason to shove is to hide what our hand was - he certainly isn't calling our shove with AK.

You have most of his likely holdings beat, get as much $$ in as you can.

Yes but will he call our bet? This sounds like one of those "the better your hand the bigger you bet" statements. benny the cunt is talking about a VALUE bet. i.e. a bet designed to make the other player call with a worse hand.



Ok here are my thoughts.

Lets assume we shove river each time we are in this spot. (im gonna make some basic assumptions here about how often he might have a particular hand, and what the result will be)

Villains range (% of the time) Result

AK, Axh, ~60%, he folds, we win $10
TT, 99, 15%, he calls, we win $20
AA,KK, 25%, he calls, we lose $20
QQ, Qx, 88, 33, 44, <5%, he calls, we lose $20

I may have just confused myself, but do the above figures make any sense?

I think we are called here on the river more times by hands that beat us, than by hands we beat - even moreso as lots of players wont call our value bet with TT/99 either. So most times, we get what was in the pot anyway.

[gmatical]

The reason why I feel you can eliminate AA KK is that he checked the river.

With your lack of aggression post flop I don't see how the villian can expect action, your play makes a river bet unlikely (you have called all the way).

If you held AA or KK, how often do you check the river ?

I would expect rarely.

Hang on, I gotta go home - TBC

[bennymacca]

what you are saying makes sense, but i dont think QQ,88 or 33 are in his range, because he bets river or shoves himself with these hands. maybe AQ is there but unlikely.

but yeah, i think AA and KK represent a bigger part of his range than 99 or TT, so checking back might be the way to go. (which is what i did)

If you held AA or KK, how often do you check the river ?

I would expect rarely.

triple barelling is pretty strong, i am not calling with JJ if he triple barrels. but if he checks, he gives me a chance to bluff if i had the NFD.

having said that, he might have half potted it again with AA or KK. which brings us back to the start.

hmmm. still confused.

when i get home, i will post the villain's actual stats, cant remember them right now, but it might give us a better idea

[gmatical]

what you are saying makes sense, but i dont think QQ,88 or 33 are in his range, because he bets river or shoves himself with these hands. maybe AQ is there but unlikely.

but yeah, i think AA and KK represent a bigger part of his range than 99 or TT, so checking back might be the way to go. (which is what i did)

This thinking confuses me. You are saying he bets, and bets big with the nuts (or near to it) - because his hand is likely a winner.

AA and KK are also likely winning hands, (or hands that are likely to win without knowing your actual holdings) - so should he not also bet these using your logic?

His lack of a bet should indicate a weak hand.

3 barrels are hard to call, but that is often why they are made.


Combining my above logic with Maccatak11's ranges which I think are close to right - I think we can downgrade the chance he has AA or KK to 10%
AK & Ax stay at 60%,
TT,99 can be combined with all non set pocket pairss and call this 25%
AA KK 10%
QQ etc 5%

Your 85% favourite, have no fear! Bet!

BTW, there is value in not showing down hands.

Also, I only found this thread after the result was posted.

I would not have posted but I wanted to highlight that, on the info avalible, it was likely bennymacca's hand was best.

Love Always,

Gmatical

[bennymacca]

This thinking confuses me. You are saying he bets, and bets big with the nuts (or near to it) - because his hand is likely a winner.

AA and KK are also likely winning hands, (or hands that are likely to win without knowing your actual holdings) - so should he not also bet these using your logic?

AA and KK are good hands, but not the nuts, and i have called 2 streets. that might have sent the alarm bells off in his head, so he check-calls instead of betting to try and control the pot. him checking also allows me to bluff with my missed flush draws.

if it was me, i would probably check the river with KK, possibly AA as well.


in general, i think this is a great hand to discuss, because its not immediately obvious whether you can put a value bet in on the river here.

[Papa Bear]

I knew someone would post something like this AFTER the results have been mentioned

I think I picked it ages ago benny the cunt !

[bennymacca]

for those that were wondering, his stats were 22/18, so he was pretty TAG.

[bennymacca]

2p2 agrees

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/69/mi ... st19024660

what i didnt' think of was a small bet, something like 3.5, which may have worked. but in the end i think checking back was the way to go