NL50, flop a set, villain spazzes on scarecard river

[Garth Kay]

I said the bet sizing was ok, not brilliant. In terms of the bet sizing and if you want to get extremely analytical then you need to look at stack sizes and price yourself in for a river showdown.

You need to make this decision immediately on that flop, but his hand strength is never clearly defined until the river and I honestly think the only thing you are beating that possibly shove is top two and AK.

So therefore with that in mind, increase your flop raise to 8 - 10. I am in two minds in regards to potting the turn at these limits, are pot bet is generally accepted as absolute strength and a bet designed to scare off callers. Anyway I like the pot or upwards of 80% of pot simply to price yourself in for any movements on the river.

So we raise to $9 on the flop, on the turn pot is $21.50? So we at bet the minimum turn bet of 80% of pot = $17.50, Villain calls. Pot is now $56.50 and now villain shoves, you have $23 remaining out of your stack, you are getting almost 3.5 to 1 to call. You only need to be right one in three times that villain has turned his hand into a river bluff or is overplaying a marginal hand to make this a profitable call.

[Garth Kay]

By the way I have experimented with every single playing style over the last three weeks at 50NL for two hour periods.

I have now decided that 2009/2010 will be the year of the NIT. I don't think the agro game works as well now, everyone is always thinking that you're not that strong or turning hands into bluffs.

I am tightening up and hoping to have stats of 20/18 in 6 max and 18/14 in full ring. I doubt that that will happen but I am giving it an honest to god shot.

I am also a big admirer of small ball poker now, I don't think we ever really need to pot and bet sizing is dependant on the type of opponent we are facing, against a calling station who's hand range is clearly defined by his betting patterns - you can play conservative and restrict your risk or you can try to commit as many chips as possible, knowing that he will hit that flush draw 30% of the time.

I really don't know if my game is going to be about max value any more or playing in a style that restricts the risk I face. For me it's an interesting conundrum because I have always been the loudest in stating get your chips in good and there's not more you can do. But I honestly think that now, as I have grown as a player, there is a lot more I can do to avoid the impact that luck has played in my game. But making these changes impacts on the maximum value I can extract from hands.

I really want to become an absolute expert on bet sizing and game theory. And I will spend quite a bit of time studying this over the next few months. It's one of the areas where my game really suffers and I don't think it through enough.

[muzzington]

Glad to hear you say that Garth, that's my natural style!

[bennymacca]

good posts garth.

So therefore with that in mind, increase your flop raise to 8 - 10. I am in two minds in regards to potting the turn at these limits, are pot bet is generally accepted as absolute strength and a bet designed to scare off callers. Anyway I like the pot or upwards of 80% of pot simply to price yourself in for any movements on the river.

So we raise to $9 on the flop, on the turn pot is $21.50? So we at bet the minimum turn bet of 80% of pot = $17.50, Villain calls. Pot is now $56.50 and now villain shoves, you have $23 remaining out of your stack, you are getting almost 3.5 to 1 to call. You only need to be right one in three times that villain has turned his hand into a river bluff or is overplaying a marginal hand to make this a profitable call.

this is my mistake really.

with a set, i want to get it in pretty much every single time. but i have left myself too many chips by not raising the flop enough. this means that he can bluff the scare card river and still have fold equity, which is obviously bad for me.

I am also a big admirer of small ball poker now,

lately, i have changed my bet sizing quite a bit, and it seems to be working well.

i used to raise 3x preflop every single time, 4x if there was 1 limper (or i was utg) etc.

recently, i changed to betting more preflop. usually i just click the "pot" button, which puts out a 3.5x raise without limpers etc. with the games with antes, this makes my standard raise size over 4x. this might not sound like much, but it means there is 1 or 2 bb more in the pot preflop, which makes quite a difference to your postflop options.

whilst this sounds like the complete opposite of small ball, i think it works post flop well. it means that instead of betting full pot, i can bet 2/3 to 4/5 of the pot and still get the same amount of money in the pot. similarly on the river, it allows you to make half or 2/3 pot value bets a lot easier, without leaving yourself an awkward stack size.

it also gives you more options post flop.


but you are right garth, nitting it up is the way to go. my standard game is something like 22/18 now, but that sometimes creeps higher. for full ring though, especially in tourneys, i would be lucky to play 18/14, until the later stages of the tourney at least.

[Garth Kay]

I just spend the last hour four tabling, don't tell anyone, meant to be working.

I just lost 9 buy in's @ 50 NL

I'll post HH's later if required.

I ran KK into AA three times, against freaking calling stations that call down no matter how strong their hand. I did have AA in the range twice as I was three bet twice by these Loopys (my new word for loose passive). And the board actually had to fall rags and rainbow every time so I was getting it in no matter what.

I ran into set over set three times.

And twice in heads up, flush vs nut flush - and I am talking two or three handed not full ring or 6 max.

And then lastly nut straight with a shove from villain on turn, called and river boats him up. Hit two pair on the turn to give him runner runner. Now this happened twice.

Coolers freaking everywhere. And that's how good I am and how well I run.

[bennymacca]

dont you love that!!!

[bennymacca]

so i am guessing that the challenge has hit a bit of a speed bump then?

[Garth Kay]

I love poker as much as ........... disappointed!

Yep I am!

[Garth Kay]

so i am guessing that the challenge has hit a bit of a speed bump then?

Not really. Over 1K in tournament winnings and still up $530 from ring games.

Just need to balance it all out.

[Garth Kay]

Oh some of it was on another site.

So not all bad on 888