Monty Hall Paradox

Brett Kay · Postby **Brett Kay** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:22 pm

The problem is this,

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Will post a poll, and if people want to explain the rationale behind the answers. I do ask that if you know the solution and the reasoning to wait for a period of time. For those that feel the need to google the answer, i ask that you also please explain you answer first before googling.

Brett.

Postby **bennymacca** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:42 pm

i know the answer but will let someone else post it.

but can you please move it out of hand discussion, because people will get confused and think this applies to poker, when it really doesn't

Brett Kay · Postby **Brett Kay** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 3:47 pm

Beginner discussion then benny the cunt.

Postby **David** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 4:00 pm

I already know the answer too. Will wait.

Postby **BigPete33** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 5:15 pm

I don't know the answer so will have a crack.

There's 2 doors left, so you're now 50/50 to get the car (or a goat).

Just because you're offered another choice doesn't mean you have to take it, I'd probably stick with the original choice due to it being 50/50 anyway.

If I chose incorrectly and get the goat, I happen to know a goat farmer so it's win/win

krunchie · Postby **krunchie** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:03 pm

because as pete said it comes down to a 50/50 choice doesnt it then become similar
to the iocane poison puzzle in "a princess bride"

do you have to now discern that the game show host has brought up door number two to steer you away from door number 1 becasue that has the car or, has he picked number 2 that has the car, because you will automatically think, there is no way the car is behind number two because he just gave me the option to choose it.

AceLosesKing · Postby **AceLosesKing** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:05 pm

I know the answer, took me an hour of reading the entire problem on Wiki to get it.

krunchie · Postby **krunchie** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:07 pm

i just ran this problem by my wife and she said that this example was shown on an episode of numbers ( well at least she said she thought it was)

Spoiler:

Brett Kay · Postby **Brett Kay** » Sun Mar 20, 2011 6:18 pm

krunchie wrote:because as pete said it comes down to a 50/50 choice doesnt it then become similar
to the iocane poison puzzle in "a princess bride"

do you have to now discern that the game show host has brought up door number two to steer you away from door number 1 becasue that has the car or, has he picked number 2 that has the car, because you will automatically think, there is no way the car is behind number two because he just gave me the option to choose it.

He always shows a door with a goat, to all contestants and gives all of them the same option to switch. So no reads can be factored in.

Larx36 · Postby **Larx36** » Mon Mar 21, 2011 10:41 am

Personally I would stick with my original door as I would be very disappointed if I were to down grade my prize but willing to accept the outcome of my first instinctive choice.

Plus!
I now know that Pete knows a goat farmer.

You're a Bunch of Factors