T-I-L-T

[bennymacca]

i calculated "fair" odds to be about 4:1 so i dont think my odds were as low as you think

[Chris Trudgeon]

I set myself a super difficult goal also on the weekend Jo, wanting a ticket for the the GF I went to the venue making it very clear to anyone who would listen that today I was going to win. Normally i'll sit at the same table with the same group (freeroll style) where winning with the worst starting hand is considered super funny, as is tilting your whole stack off with K J to the 3rd all-in and everyone has a pretty good time (mostly alcohol related).

Allocated seating seem to help me with this goal quite a bit although i ended up with ROY and a couple other decent previous season GF/Melbourne champs players (3 previous DT members total). So disciplined was my poker I managed to ship the event with the most extraordinary stats......for the entirety of this event (just over 4 hours) I was never dealt a pair...never hit a set (tough without pockets)......no straight......no flush so obv the best hand i had was two pair once which I folded on a flushing board....all around me was QQ < AA and straights running into flushes, boat over boat etc......I just was never in those hands.

Running bad is the new running good with this in mind somehow I hit the F/T as C/L having won most pots without a showdown or with a single pair only...... but then proceded to immediately lose half my stack running AQ into KK (AIPF....A on the flop...damn K wasn't far away tho) .....having no cards kinda forced me to play/bet well and I shipped it

[JMACK007]

I set myself a super difficult goal also on the weekend Jo, wanting a ticket for the the GF I went to the venue making it very clear to anyone who would listen that today I was going to win. Normally i'll sit at the same table with the same group (freeroll style) where winning with the worst starting hand is considered super funny, as is tilting your whole stack off with K J to the 3rd all-in and everyone has a pretty good time (mostly alcohol related).

Allocated seating seem to help me with this goal quite a bit although i ended up with ROY and a couple other decent previous season GF/Melbourne champs players (3 previous DT members total). So disciplined was my poker I managed to ship the event with the most extraordinary stats......for the entirety of this event (just over 4 hours) I was never dealt a pair...never hit a set (tough without pockets)......no straight......no flush so obv the best hand i had was two pair once which I folded on a flushing board....all around me was QQ < AA and straights running into flushes, boat over boat etc......I just was never in those hands.

Running bad is the new running good with this in mind somehow I hit the F/T as C/L having won most pots without a showdown or with a single pair only...... but then proceded to immediately lose half my stack running AQ into KK (AIPF....A on the flop...damn K wasn't far away tho) .....having no cards kinda forced me to play/bet well and I shipped it

Nice mate....and exactly what I was getting at. To play proper poker and be successful, you have to play the players around you. I had lost this skill to some extent, but this "experiment" made me get back to my roots and has me playing good poker again. HOW GOOD WILL THE NEXT GF BE WITH YOU 2 CLOWNS THERE TOGETHER????!!!

[JMACK007]

i calculated "fair" odds to be about 4:1 so i dont think my odds were as low as you think

Hey benny the cunt, you did say you would show how you came up with the odds. I would love to see it.

[666HARPS666]

i calculated "fair" odds to be about 4:1 so i dont think my odds were as low as you think

Hey benny the cunt, you did say you would show how you came up with the odds. I would love to see it.

Maybe 2 dice 4 cockroaches & a time glass with 2 way mirrors.

No doubt Jonas Macksumus Mostachieveus, inus VIII VIII VIII.PL is 'r'us, Will be back.

[Garth Kay]

name one person that has a 1 win in 6 game record in MTT's no mater how soft you belive the field is.

Sick brag but my win rate in home games is currently 1 in 4.

In all seriousness though it's fine to push yourself and the key with goal setting is always try and make it "almost" unrealistic.

I will say this; Jo definitely played a better game on the weekend than I have seen him play previously. I even commented on it to him. He was more aggressive, he wielded his stack the correct way and was more LAG than have ever seen him play, which is vastly different to the passive nit I had him tagged as previously.

[David]

Long term, setting goals that are unrealistic works against you, in my opinion.

[krunchie]

I am playing better poker for it though.

Try it yourself (not necessary to have the bet, just tell yourself you are going all out to win 1 of your next 5 events), then tell me if you find yourself playing better poker for it or not.....

Because of the variance in poker i dont think win goals are realistic, to challenge my self and become better i would much rather set goals that are slightly more acheivable but still result in me becoming better poker player

for instance a few goals may be

1/ to take my time in decisions and think a hand through properly before acting
2/ to learn and implement maths into my game- outs, pot odds, implied odds etc
3/ to start assigning hand ranges to every player in every pot i am at the table at

these are just a few basic examples and you might say pffft i do that any way, but if you really think about it, you may see inyour game that you dont maximise these things every hand every street- i know i dont

if i start doing these things properly- like really properly then i will get better, then will asign another 2 or 3 things i need to improve on slightly higher level

[bennymacca]

i agree with what you are saying krunchie, but if jo was after a bit of money on the line to provide him with some motivation, then good luck to him.

the more unrealistic the goal, the higher the odds will be.

[bennymacca]

also, ill go through the maths that i used to work out the odds. (for those that aren't great with maths, skip about halfway down to where i started making estimations about jo's game)

The mathematical construct used in these situations is called a binomial distribution, which models the success of n indepentent yes/no trials, where the probability of success is p.

the probability of getting k successes in n trials, with success probability p is given by


where




in our example, n = 5, the number of tournaments, k is the number of wins, and p is the probability of a win.

now in our case, jo's success is k >= 1 (i.e 1 or more wins). so to work out the probability, we actually work out the probability of jo not winning at all, and then take one minus that number (this way, we get the probability of 1,2,3,4, or 5 wins)

i did it by hand the first time, but then i found an online calculator which lets you play around with the numbers easily
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________


now i will tell you how i went about calculating jo's average

first, i went through jo's results online.

since season 1 2010, he has played live 228 games, for 6 wins and 71 final tables.

this is a win percentage of 2.63% and a final table percentage of 31.14%


so now we have the parameters to plug into the binomial distribution.

n = 5, k = 1, p = 0.0263

plugging these in gives a probability of 1 or more wins as 12.48%, or odds of approximately 8:1


BUT

i figured that jo, like the rest of us when we play 888pl, doesn't take it seriously most of the time, so i estimated his win rate to be up to 3 times as high as his long term win rate because there was something on the line.

so i figured jo's win rate might actually be as high as 7%. (rightly or wrongly, this was my estimation)

if we use p = 0.07, and re-calculate the number, then we get the probability of at least 1 win P(X>=1) = 0.3043, or 3.3:1.

thus, when i was setting the odds, i decided to go slightly in my favour and set them at 2.6:1. you could argue that my estimate of jo's win rate was too high but meh.

i did the same thing with the final table percentage, but i used jo's long term final table percentage to calculate the odds of a final table, and it turns out that, jo will make a final table at least once in 5 games, 84% of the time. so thats where the 1:7 odds came in, but i was always expecting to lose that bet as i didn't take into account a higher percentage from jo playing properly.



so hopefully i have explained it ok. basically if you use the online calculator you dont need to know any of the maths and you can still work out some stuff.


if you ever want to have any more of these challenges, i am happy to give you some more action, but i guess the odds will be different this time as you will know more about what odds are realistic.

Cheers

Barb