Further Hypothetical!

[Garth Kay]

I went into this with an open mind and just decided to do the calculations in pokerstove, and using an online ICM calculator.

for argument's sake, i put in 6000, 5000 and 1000 as the chip stacks.

for a place percentage, we get the following results

1st place - 41.7%
2nd place - 45.46%
Total - 87.1%

Now, lets assume a 5% shipping range for the SB


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

482,869,728 games 0.234 secs 2,063,545,846 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.043% 81.71% 01.33% 394572768 6419154.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 16.957% 15.63% 01.33% 75458652 6419154.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


since we are only 83% to win against that range, and we are 87% to cash using the ICM calculation, the correct thing to do would be to fold.


WOW WOW

never would have believed that

Next time let's keep the thread going for awhile before you steal my thunder. Thanks benny the cunt appreciate it!

[bennymacca]

sorry garth

im still amazed though. i think i need to look at my SNG game a bit more closely.

[Garth Kay]

There are more scenarios out there.

Joel and Benn are going to draw some stuff up for me.

[bennymacca]

btw, i am loving these hypotheticals, because the obvious answer is to say WTF its aces, and snap call, but its not actually correct.

another thing you have to consider is your equity edge over the field - if you have a significant advantage over the other big stack in terms of ability, it may be correct to fold when your ICM equity is even less - if it was 80% for instance, it still might be correct to fold.

[Garth Kay]

btw, i am loving these hypotheticals, because the obvious answer is to say WTF its aces, and snap call, but its not actually correct.

another thing you have to consider is your equity edge over the field - if you have a significant advantage over the other big stack in terms of ability, it may be correct to fold when your ICM equity is even less - if it was 80% for instance, it still might be correct to fold.

Yeah - I have been learning a lot (again) over the last few weeks, I'm trying to keep it all together and help others out but so much going on in the same time.

[Garth Kay]

I would call most of the time without hesitation.

But when i think about it would consider folding, even tho you would be about a 70% favorite in the hand, you still might lose somewhere between 25-30% of time. At least by folding you could go up 1 position as it would be very likely SB would have a good hand without knowing the players... I would still have 41-43BB left, so able to fight on. If BB won you all would be even on chip stacks, but if SB won, your guaranteed money.

However by calling and even if the BB won, but hero beats SB the chip stacks would he BB 30 SB 10 Hero 80. So very good position...afterwards.

With out knowing the players.. really hard to tell. my 2cents worth

Good answer Mike, you almost presented an ICM argument without even knowing it.

Winner of this thread thus far for natural understanding!

[gmatical]

I went into this with an open mind and just decided to do the calculations in pokerstove, and using an online ICM calculator.

for argument's sake, i put in 6000, 5000 and 1000 as the chip stacks.

for a place percentage, we get the following results

1st place - 41.7%
2nd place - 45.46%
Total - 87.1%

Please Explain This Part Further Sensai - I am not clear what it means.

[Garth Kay]

I went into this with an open mind and just decided to do the calculations in pokerstove, and using an online ICM calculator.

for argument's sake, i put in 6000, 5000 and 1000 as the chip stacks.

for a place percentage, we get the following results

1st place - 41.7%
2nd place - 45.46%
Total - 87.1%

Please Explain This Part Further Sensai - I am not clear what it means.

This leads into the realm of ICM calculations and how tournament equity and payouts dictate your decisions. ICM can be difficult to explain but I will write up a piece very shortly.

But for basic terms let's say we buy into a tournament for $10 and get giving 5,000 in chip. Do we then say that if we eliminate a player on the first hand and double up to 10,000 that we have $20 in tournament chips/equity? Actually we don't say that at all, because even if we accumulate all of the chips in play we are still only receiving (at most) 50% of the prize and only half the buy ins.

So therefore through the middle and early stages of a tourney each tournament chip is worth a nominal amount; but as you progress through to the bubble and ITM situations each tournament chip becomes worth more or less depending on the size of your stack compared to the rest of the players. So ICM calculations help you decide whether making a play and acquiring more chips (and risking your current staks or percentage thereof) is a worthwhile play and will increase the possibility of theoretically winning more money.

Now let's say that you are five handed and you are the monster chip leader, the next 4 players all have the same chip counts (about 5% of the chips in play) so you have 80% of the chips in play; you can assign a value to your equity in the tournament and possibility of winning based on these statistics; but even though you have 80% of the chips in play you are only ever expected to wine slightly less than 80% of the time from this situation, (let's say 76% of the time) so therefore your tournament equity at this stage is 76% of 1st prize (which is 50% of the prize pool).

I hope that makes a bit of sense, and I dont have time to review this. benny the cunt can elaborate further.

[AceLosesKing]

Even though fold is the correct answer, can anyone actually say if given this situation IRL, they're folding?

[Garth Kay]

Even though fold is the correct answer, can anyone actually say if given this situation IRL, they're folding?

If the prize for first is 100 million and the prize for second is 50 million dollars what do you do?