Another WSOP Hypothetical

[trishan]

You can look at this mathematically from an EV perspective.

Say if you call with AA and win, given your edge on the field, you have a chance to win on average $60K. Whereas if you fold, given your edge on the field, you will win on average $20K.

Equity numbers playing 3 opponents with very tight ranges (as you would expect):

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.924% 69.83% 02.10% 21129493248 635086728.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 09.359% 08.24% 01.12% 2493260640 338721672.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 09.359% 08.24% 01.12% 2493260640 338721672.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 09.359% 08.24% 01.12% 2493260640 338721672.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

EV = [P(win) X $60K] - $20K
EV = .7192 X $60k - $20k
EV = $43.152k - $20k
EV = $23.152k

This looks like it would be +EV to call. What's debatable is the figures of $20K and $60K. The $20K figure is in other words your expectation given your edge and the starting stack at the start of the tournament. The $60K is the expectation given your edge and a stack 4 times the starting stack.

Some may say $60K is too much, some may say too little. It is a big field tournament so having 4 times the starting stack on the second hand is advantageous but will not guarantee success.

The argument between Jo and Garth is really about another variable omitted from the above calculation. That is the value one puts on the WSOP experience.

So really EV = $23.152k - Perceived Value of WSOP Experience

What can we say about this variable. Well it should be at least $10k for most people, because that's what they paid to play! But players who are sponsored may not perceive the value of the experience to be that high and so are calling here everyday of the week. If it is someone who worked hard for the buy in, they may put a perceived value of $30k on the whole experience and so folding is better.

It really comes down to perceived value of the experience and there is no right or wrong answer to the hypothetical.

[Garth Kay]

That might be over the top of a lot of people's heads Trishan; but you are correct.
I think you're figures are off slightly for the expected value as well.

I'm glad to see some high end maths hit this forum (that isn't posted by benny the cunt).
I take it you have been reading Sklansky and the Mathematics of Poker as well by the looks of it?

Now all we need to do is teach you about position and hand ranges and you'll make a half decent poker player (tongue firmly planted in cheek)

[bennymacca]

well done trishan

i havent gone 100% through all your ranges etc to see what i would think, but i love that you are trying to put numbers on the perceived tournament value. excellent.

so we have 1 of 2 scenarios.

1) we can play for 3 days, and fall 100 runners short of the money, but play for 3 days, mix it up with the pros etc etc.
2) we can get it in right here, lose, and lose that opportunity.

how much more is scenario 1 worth it to you?

for me, it would be a very significant amount. for a big name pro, it would suck because it would harm their potential earnings, as they could be playing tournaments/cash games elsewhere,

[gmatical]

Please take AQ (suited and off suit) from the range, if these are in our opponents all in preflop range we should be falling over ourselves to be getting our money in.

[trishan]

Please take AQ (suited and off suit) from the range, if these are in our opponents all in preflop range we should be falling over ourselves to be getting our money in.

That's true Gmat. My example was not meant to be accurate but just to show that it really comes down to perceived value.

I'm glad to see some high end maths hit this forum (that isn't posted by benny the cunt).
I take it you have been reading Sklansky and the Mathematics of Poker as well by the looks of it?

Not Sklansky just yet. But bits of MoP. This is the sort of stuff I learn in Uni but obviously with non-poker related examples. Did a few subjects on economics and statistics.

how much more is scenario 1 worth it to you?

Personally I would love to stick around for a few hours/days at a minimum, even if it means folding here. It'd be all about the experience for me.

[Garth Kay]

Glenn,

Have you read any of the live reporting from Day 1's. There is some crazy bat shit stuff going on over there.

I think you can include ATs+ from first players to act and then tightening up the other ranges dramatically.