Do you fold this hand on the Satellite bubble?

[Caleb]

Playing a $24+$2 FT Satellite to the $750,000 guarantee in several hours. 25 $200+$16 tickets guarenteed.

250 odd runners - ended up being 27 tickets and $72 for 28th.

I was sitting 8th with 60 left at double chip average (10,000 blinds 100/200).

I folded down to the last 35 only playing 2 hands in that time. Card dead beyond belief. Managed to survive until 28 left. Then this hand occurred.

I'm sitting 27/28 in chips with 6,450. Blinds 400/800 100 ante. Only 5 players below 10000 in chips, most had just passed blinds.

I'm button and get dealt [kh kc].

UTG big stack min raises to 1600. Folds to me. He has 24000. Blinds have 15000 and 19000 each.

What do you do?

Will post what I did tomorrow.

[Nathan Butler]

Fold and Pray is was the right decision. MR-UTG is standard for any N00B with AA.

There are a few logical ways to look at it this. Being on the bubble you will no doubt find everyone tightening up. If you flat the min raise (approximately 25% of your stack) and the two blinds fold, you can jam any flop that doesn't reveal an A and hope your opponent doesn't have AA.

You could also raise all-in pre. If he has a hand he will call, if not he will fold. If he has a hand like A-anything or any other pair he is only roughly 20-30% chance to win all the way to the river so although moving all in pre and getting a call will guarantee a full board in play you will still be the favorite... hope he doesn't hit that ace...

Another option (which i doubt would work at this level of game play) is re-raise, but not all in. You are the shortest stack at the table (and tourney) if you re-open committing 50-60% of your stack, any opponent would have to see the strength you are showing. You are committing your tournament life this hand one way or another. By showing everyone that you are doing this may induce a fold from the intial raiser...

and of coarse you can just fold and pray some other n00b gets busted.

[AceLosesKing]

Now THIS is a worthy HH.

Shove. Flatting is pointless, you don't want the SB/BB coming along. Just because you're on the bubble in a $24 tourny doesn't mean that the BB is going to fold something like TT here. You want this pot HU. There are more hands that UTG can call with than the one that beats you. Nathan's 3b line would have a larger % of folding out hands, but you must know that if you do this you are committed to the hand.

You don't give any reads on UTG... so I put it in here. I really don't think you can fold down here from 27th position, with 8bb. Its bubble play, its going to take even longer for someone to bust.

[krunchie]

this a coin flip situation where both decisons could be correct or incorect.

Its a bit dammed if you do and dammed if you dont, If you do hit the fold button there is still several things out of your controll that need to happen in order for you to ship a ticket, at least with shoving you are in controll of your own destiny and if you die you dont die wondering which is enevitably what will occur if you fold your KK and still dont manage to hold on for 27th

[Swanky]

HOLY SH*T I just had a flash back and it took me back to a place I spent years trying to get away from!

Caleb, I was in a situation that is so similar it scares me.
Going back about 4 years now UB had "The Ultimate Freeroll" promo going, you had to enter a freeroll and place in the top 10 to qualify for the Ultimate Freeroll, which had a Million clams up for 1st place.
Well I qualify. Cash starts at 100, there is an astronomical amount of players, oevr 30k in players, so this could be a long day.
I'm up at 3am on the Sunday morning and set myself up.
I play for 8 hours and by about 11am we have around 200 players left.
Blinds are nuts but I'm sitting pretty to cash in this thing.
100 pays $300 so it's worth hanging around just to be first in the cash.
But all of a sudden the whole field tightens up and the game slows right down.
this becomes a perfect opportunity for the big stacks to steal blinds as everyone is running their clocks down and folding, hoping to make the money.
This one guys was all in every hand and just picking up bucket loads as no one wanted to gamble with.
We have 105 players left in the tourny and my stack is starting to look grim, I should make the cash if I fold me way, but it's getting trickier some people just won't die.
And this guy has won like 30 hands in a row.
The big blind rolls round to me and I look down at KK, everyone runs the clock down and folds until the Villian jumps straight in with his standard bet of all in. I finally have a hand I can call him with, been playing for seems like weeks with all this slow play.
3 or 4 from the money and my tourny life is on the line if I call.
I stew on this for my alotted time, then go into the tank for a further 30 seconds. I the end I fold.
I then let everyone know I folded KK.
That's when the pain really started, everyone on the table tore shreds off my for not calling. It was quite painful.
Less than 5 minutes later the bubble burst and they all dropped like flies.
I'm quickly blinded out and finish in about 80th spot and cash for a bit over $400.
Was it worth folding the KK??
I think so as hard as it was to do. Who know, I could have doubled up and gone on to finish deeper, we'll never know.
But every time I see KK, I go back to that dark dark place.

[muzzington]

I think your only mistake there was telling everyone.

[AceLosesKing]

I think your only mistake there was telling everyone.

No, cos then we wouldn't have this awesome story

[Swanky]

I think he meant the table.
Either way you're right it was an awesome story.
Think I might turn it into a movie.
Might get George Clooney to play me and I reckon Jessica Alba to play my love interest.

[phillipa kerin]

just shove allin and have faith

[muzzington]

I think he meant the table.
Either way you're right it was an awesome story.

Yeah, the table.

And it was awesome.