railing the SoO

[bennymacca]

Now that's funny!!!!

(not you getting smashed, but your comment)

yeah i know what you meant

i ahve been 3 outered about 5012378544908231470192740124871024712 times tonight.

just about to make my second final table in 8 games though, so i think that is still pretty decent given the run i have had

[JMACK007]

btw bruce, the fact that des was cip leader means that he is more likely to have a less good hand

Des knows I hold him the highest regard, but I am more surprised at his call than Bruce's fold...

so bruce limped, des raised, got shoved on, bruce folded and des called?

depending on how much des had in the middle, it probably priced him in to call after the shove. an actual hand history would be good here i think

It's there above, have a look. Des wasn't chip leader, blinds at 800, he bet 5.6K, got shoved for abt 10K more and called, leaving himself with abt 15k if he makes the call, but 25k if he lays i down, and must have known he was behind....

[JMACK007]

just about to make my second final table in 8 games though, so i think that is still pretty decent given the run i have had

Good luck mate!

[bennymacca]

my bad, i didn't see the first graph, only the second one.

thats an instacall from des' point of view. he has to put 5k more to win 20k

lets put the shover's range at JJ+, AK+

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

46,232,208 games 0.044 secs 1,050,732,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }



so he is 39% to win against this range. so he only needs to be getting around 2.5:1 to make this call, and he is getting 4:1. so its an easy call imo

Good luck mate!

no good, out in 9th. frustrating night, lots of deep runs, just couldn't get any traction. oh well.

[JMACK007]

fair enough, except it is 10K more, not 5k more...

Not insta if you sit back and think about it, right on the line, and could have been crucial (and Des knew he was behind I am sure)...

bl on the 9th, as you know, sometimes the game just takes over and you have no control....

[maccatak11]

so its 10k more roughly to win 23k and you have AK getting over 2 to 1 on a call.

you are def priced in for a flip, he may wake up with AJ/AQ and you are nearly priced in if he has KK.

even if we apply the tightest possible range that the shover may have (JJ+, AKs, AKo), des should still call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 10936805 7456889.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 20381624 7456889.50 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }


in reality, even against tight players, the range for a shove to a pretty standard raise could include TT, AQo, AQs and maybe AJs and 99. if we include all these then the results are as follows.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.828% 41.08% 08.74% 37988179 8085133.00 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 50.172% 41.43% 08.74% 38305971 8085133.00 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }


you can see its almost an exact coin flip, which when your getting 2 to one (and the fact that des' whole stack isnt on the line), you have to call.



EDIT: dammit benny the cunt can use pokerstove quicker than me.

[bennymacca]

haha, now matthew beats me to id LOL

fair enough, except it is 10K more, not 5k more...

bloody hell, it must be late or something. sorry mate

ok, so its 10k more to call. so he is getting 2.3:1

now, that puts it at a marginal call/fold with the tight range of JJ+ and AK.

i suppose it comes down to what range des put the shover on. even against a very tight range that i stoved, he is getting nearly the right odds. but its quite possible that there are more pocket pairs in there, down to 99 even, and maybe AQ as well.

i am still pretty comfortable getting it in.


adding AQ and TT into the range makes it a snap call.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

77,053,680 games 0.054 secs 1,426,920,000 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.175% 38.86% 10.32% 29939770 7951130.50 { AcKd }
Hand 1: 50.825% 40.51% 10.32% 31211649 7951130.50 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }


---








now that i have read it properly, it is actually a pretty interesting spot for des. i think both a fold and a call are ok in this case, depending on your reads on the villain. i would say its a call like 70% of the time here


(it still doesn't excuse bruce folding KK though )

[JMACK007]

That late in a tourney, I would prefer not to flip a coin, but wait for the right situation to get the chips in (depending on the situation of course). But I am far from an expert....

[bennymacca]

That late in a tourney, I would prefer not to flip a coin, but wait for the right situation to get the chips in (depending on the situation of course). But I am far from an expert....

very true, but it is pretty hard to find better spots to get your money in than with AK

[JMACK007]

Yes, and Des caught it in the end, but he definitely knew he was behind, so good call, but I prob fold there...

(at least there was another allin player, so Des gets some info even if he folds)...

If he doesn't call, when they turn preflop, he does a little dance...

When the board plays out, he starts throwing things at the NFL on the TV....

(but still has enough chips to contend in the tourney, as opposed to the 61% chance of not winning that hand)....