Later Stages of Cake $4k guarantee (2 hands)

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Garth Kay
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Re: Later Stages of Cake $4k guarantee (2 hands)

Postby Garth Kay » Wed May 26, 2010 8:14 am

It's a tournament equity calculation.

I need to know:

1.) How many players left in the tournament?
2.) Are we in the cash yet?
- IF YES - what's the remaining prize pool left to be paid out?
- IF NO - How many eliminations until we reach the cash
3.) What is the average stack size?
4.) What is your actual chip stack size.

Based on the above information you supplied, I would not be calling if it is costing me more than 25% of my stack if I was playing with greater the 50BB. I would not call if it cost me more than 10% of my stack if I had less then 50BB.

I can definitely find better places to remove a short stack and the pot odds offered make it a very marginal call at best.
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Re: Later Stages of Cake $4k guarantee (2 hands)

Postby Garth Kay » Wed May 26, 2010 8:25 am

Also Hand 2:

Have you been open shoving many hands? If you haven't what has been your general open?

In this scenario, and with my usual play, I actually like to go to 2x or 2.5x. Most times the BB believes they are priced in and require to call and if he is a decent AG player will re ship his stack in.

Min bets though do often look suspicious, but in my case I am that aggressive that somehow the believe I have a shit hand and do not want to commit to much to the pot if the SS ships it in.

I think you want max value here and I am not sure open shoving is going to achieve this.
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Re: Later Stages of Cake $4k guarantee (2 hands)

Postby gmatical » Wed May 26, 2010 9:58 am

Testing the memory a bit here but....

Garth Kay wrote:It's a tournament equity calculation.

I need to know:

1.) How many players left in the tournament?

16 or so

2.) Are we in the cash yet?

Yes, paid top 30. Standard tourney payout remaining.

3.) What is the average stack size?

About 50k

4.) What is your actual chip stack size.

I was hoping to get a bit more opinion before I revealed this, but I had $38k


Based on the above information you supplied, I would not be calling if it is costing me more than 25% of my stack if I was playing with greater the 50BB. I would not call if it cost me more than 10% of my stack if I had less then 50BB.

I can definitely find better places to remove a short stack and the pot odds offered make it a very marginal call at best.


I folded, I no longer make these calls unless I have a PP or decent suited paint or A10+. Actually I probably drop the paint from my range too when the shove comes from UTG

The actions of the player previously was just folding from what I saw, so I had to credit him for a hand of some strength - nits often choose the 'next' option when it becomes 'this hand or the next' type scenario.
But it got me thinking, how phat do my stacks need to be to call with 7 3 off??!!??

I think my stack would have to be well above average, with the calling amount needing to be under 10% of my stack.
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Re: Later Stages of Cake $4k guarantee (2 hands)

Postby bennymacca » Wed May 26, 2010 10:08 am

gmatical wrote:I folded, I no longer make these calls unless I have a PP or decent suited paint or A10+. Actually I probably drop the paint from my range too when the shove comes from UTG


depends still i think. something like K9 or QJ and i think it becomes a call in my mind.


gmatical wrote:I folded, I no longer make these calls unless I have a PP or decent suited paint or A10+. Actually I probably drop the paint from my range too when the shove comes from UTG


this is true, if he was button instead of UTG, you can call with a much wider range.

gmatical wrote:But it got me thinking, how phat do my stacks need to be to call with 7 3 off??!!??

I think my stack would have to be well above average, with the calling amount needing to be under 10% of my stack.


agree with this, it has to be less than 10% i reckon.


Garth Kay wrote:I would not be calling if it is costing me more than 25% of my stack if I was playing with greater the 50BB


not really sure about this bit garth. the deeper you are, the less odds we have to call. 20% of our stack at 50bb is 10bb, so assuming there is 2.5bb in the pot from blinds and antes, we need odds of 1.38:1 to make a call when we are this deep, which we are almost certainly not getting.







ok, ill pose another question. in later stages of the tournament, when stacks are shorter, tournament equity takes precedent over pot odds. (look up the theory of ICM if you want more info)

my question is, at what point is the switch-over in general? on the bubble? near the bubble? when stacks are less than 15bb?
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Re: Later Stages of Cake $4k guarantee (2 hands)

Postby gmatical » Wed May 26, 2010 11:29 am

bennymacca wrote:
gmatical wrote:

ok, ill pose another question. in later stages of the tournament, when stacks are shorter, tournament equity takes precedent over pot odds. (look up the theory of ICM if you want more info)

my question is, at what point is the switch-over in general? on the bubble? near the bubble? when stacks are less than 15bb?


Im not familiar with the ICM theory, but i strongly believe the bubble is a bizarre little period of time that removes it from general strategy.

If my situation happened on the bubble - I credit the short stack shove as a very good hand - as there were larger stacks that could easily call with most 2 between UTG and me in BB.

During bubble middle stacks should tighten up to the point of no action unless in blinds or with top 10% of hands. Big stacks should raise every pot with most 2.

BB's mean the least when the bubble has burst, and we are slipping down the leaderboard.
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