50NL HU, Kings, Horrible Flop Facing Action

[trishan]

A reraise to $18 gives him pot odds of 2.5-1. Let's say he is on a draw and hasn't got you crushed. QQ or 88 both well within his range means 8 outs for the OESD plus 3 outs for a set. So 11 outs he is a 3.27-1 dog to make his hand on the turn so he should fold. With implied odds a call isn't terrible. On a brick turn though you must either bet enough that he still isn't getting odds and at the same time bet enough so that u are commited to any river. Or ship the turn.

if we go to 18 on the flop, and he calls, then pot is 46, and we have 37 left. so we are shipping pretty much any turn card.

pretty much any raise commits us to the hand from there on.

The idea of raising the flop here is to get more information about villains hand so you can fold the turn if need be. I think it is cheaper to reraise the flop and fold the turn than flat, get no information about his holdings and make a decision on the turn.

If you flat the flop bet, the pot is $19 and he bets 80% of the time on a brick (whether semi-bluffing with a draw or with the nuts) his bet is anywhere between $13 and $16. You have no idea where he is at and it will be expensive to find out - ie. flatting or raising when he could have you crushed.

I am happy to fold the turn. At what point do we become commited to hand? Surely if you reraised and the turn came an 8 you would fold to any raise?

[AceLosesKing]

Now THIS is a good HH.

[bennymacca]

The idea of raising the flop here is to get more information about villains hand so you can fold the turn if need be. I think it is cheaper to reraise the flop and fold the turn than flat, get no information about his holdings and make a decision on the turn.

If you flat the flop bet, the pot is $19 and he bets 80% of the time on a brick (whether semi-bluffing with a draw or with the nuts) his bet is anywhere between $13 and $16. You have no idea where he is at and it will be expensive to find out - ie. flatting or raising when he could have you crushed.

I am happy to fold the turn. At what point do we become commited to hand? Surely if you reraised and the turn came an 8 you would fold to any raise?

good points trishan.

if we flat, and call the turn, then we see a river for the same price as what we raise the flop for, so we get to see 2 extra cards.

problem is, we dont really want to see 2 extra cards, there are so many scare cards its not funny. the only card that we really like to see is a non spade queen.


so, you are happy to raise flop then fold turn?

lets swap the situation around.

how many of these hands are you leading the flop with, calling a raise, and then firing turn with?

hands we beat: AJ, ATss, JQ, QQ, 88 (maybe), AKss(maybe), QT

hands we dont beat: 99, TT, JJ, KQ, 78. AA


i think all of these hands are in his range that would bet again on the turn, but i removed half of the 88 combos because i dont think he goes stupid here too often, and only put 2 78 combos in there, because in a 3bet pot, i think we can discount these pretty heavily.

and the results are, i still have no idea. the dead money in the pot complicates this a lot.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

59,400 games 0.001 secs 59,400,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Td Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.970% 47.59% 01.38% 28267 821.00 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 51.030% 49.65% 01.38% 29491 821.00 { AA, QQ-99, 8c8d, 8d8h, 8h8s, AsKs, AsTs, KQs, QTs+, 8c7c, 8d7d, AJo, KQo, QJo }

removing 88 and AKss altogether gives us about 1.5% less equity, and doesn't really change the situation.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

55,440 games 0.001 secs 55,440,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Td Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.575% 46.15% 01.42% 25587 788.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 52.425% 51.00% 01.42% 28276 788.50 { AA, QQ-99, AsTs, KQs, QTs+, 8c7c, 8d7d, AJo, KQo, QJo }

[Garth Kay]

Trishan,

You're committed to this hand as soon as you do not fold to villains three bet on the flop. That's when you are committed to this hand. There really is no point dumping 50% of your stack in on two streets then waiting for a brick turn card.

As soon as villain min raises on flop it means he has you beat or has strong redraws to have you beat. Villain bets light, he can be up and down with a pair, two pair, straight/flush draws, sets. You just have to decide whether you want to gamble here, because right at that moment you are beaten but you have redraws yourself; any Q, any K and one of the three outs that he hasn't paired - this is against his two pair range.

Any player that is betting this way on the flop doesn't care about what odds you are offering him by sizing your bets appropriately. He is coming along for the ride and will stack off in this situation. If he is on the draw he isn't checking any turn card, he has three bet pre, three bet the flop, any player doing this on a draw is not slowing down on the turn. That's why the decision needs to be made on the flop. A player like this has the potential and the skill to turn their hand into a complete bluff on later streets because of their aggression.

[Garth Kay]

hahaha.

Nice benny the cunt, was going to stove it.

Don't forget you also need combos of JT, T9 and J9.

[bennymacca]

Trishan,

You're committed to this hand as soon as you do not fold to villains three bet on the flop

i think trishan is suggesting we can flat the flop. but i really hate that because just about every card is a scare card, which either improves villain's hand, or at least kills the action.

hahaha.

Nice benny the cunt, was going to stove it.

Don't forget you also need combos of JT, T9 and J9.

crap forgot about these.

doesn't change the situation by a huge amount. all of those 2 pair combos are fully weighted in this case, which is debatable, as he will prolly flat our raise a good portion of the time with hands like 9T i would think.


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

82,170 games 0.001 secs 82,170,000 games/sec

Board: 9s Td Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.572% 43.23% 01.35% 35519 1105.50 { KcKh }
Hand 1: 55.428% 54.08% 01.35% 44440 1105.50 { AA, QQ-99, AsTs, KQs, QTs+, J9s+, T9s, 8c7c, 8d7d, AJo, KQo, QJo, J9o+, T9o }

[bennymacca]

2p2 thinks its totally standard.

shows that sometimes people dont even read the hand history, just say - i has kings/overpair, i get it in.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/58/he ... st14840800

personally, i think this is one of the tougher hands i have played.