Further Hypothetical!

[Garth Kay]

Just had an interesting conversation that started on PNW and extended to a skype convo!

SCENARIO:

3 handed, top 2 get paid.

SB - 60BB
BB - 10BB
HERO - 50BB

You are UTG with AA and open the standard 2.5 - 3x.
The SB re ships all in.
BB calls.

Action is on Hero.

Fold or Call?

[AceLosesKing]

1st and 2nd don't pay the same, do they?

If we're looking at diff payouts, call.

You're then basically gtd 1st.

[gmatical]

The real question should be 'do we single fist pump or double fist pump call?'

Makes it hard to analyse without actual blind sizes & prizes & entry fees tho.

[Nathan Butler]

Call.

[Nathan Butler]

I would Call.

Effectively you are HU for 75% (80 BBs) of the chips in play. Win the main pot (30 BBs to) and securing the the ITM place is just a bonus. It would have to be a very unfortunate scenario for the short stack to claim the main and the SB to claim the side KO'ing in 3rd place.

BB's range should wide (or at least much wider than SB's) and If SB is re-shipping It would be fantastic to see them open up a two-outer lower pair (KK-22) even better for you still if he opens up an Ax hand and even better still if he shares a card with the BB.

I see no way, to fold her... on that note... if 1st and 2nd place were ridicules sums of money (6-7 figures) It may frighten the sHit out of me to call by I still would be calling.

[wabbit999]

I would call most of the time without hesitation.

But when i think about it would consider folding, even tho you would be about a 70% favorite in the hand, you still might lose somewhere between 25-30% of time. At least by folding you could go up 1 position as it would be very likely SB would have a good hand without knowing the players... I would still have 41-43BB left, so able to fight on. If BB won you all would be even on chip stacks, but if SB won, your guaranteed money.

However by calling and even if the BB won, but hero beats SB the chip stacks would he BB 30 SB 10 Hero 80. So very good position...afterwards.

With out knowing the players.. really hard to tell. my 2cents worth

[maccatak11]

even tho you would be about a 70% favorite in the hand, you still might lose 30% of time.

profound.

new sig anyone?

[Tim Harry]

Definately a "double fist pump" call. My brain would have blanked seeing aces & seeing SB shove over the top.

I would call, slam them to the felt, do a small but inconspicuous dance and then cry a river when the SB's 55 hit a set on the turn. After that time I would add up how much I had lost making the call (still knowing I would not be able to fold 100/100 trimes) and curse the heavens & blame that bloody Kay character for all the worlds woes!

*cut cut cut*

[bennymacca]

I went into this with an open mind and just decided to do the calculations in pokerstove, and using an online ICM calculator.

for argument's sake, i put in 6000, 5000 and 1000 as the chip stacks.

for a place percentage, we get the following results

1st place - 41.7%
2nd place - 45.46%
Total - 87.1%

Now, lets assume a 5% shipping range for the SB


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

482,869,728 games 0.234 secs 2,063,545,846 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 83.043% 81.71% 01.33% 394572768 6419154.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 16.957% 15.63% 01.33% 75458652 6419154.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }


since we are only 83% to win against that range, and we are 87% to cash using the ICM calculation, the correct thing to do would be to fold.


WOW WOW

never would have believed that

[bennymacca]

garth can you stop naming these "hypotheticals" as well?

still cant believe that its a fold with aces (hoping my maths is wrong, but i dont think so)