Further hypothetical - but now we involve gameplay and maths

[trishan]

I think your ranges are spot on though. I just CBF stoving it myself

[pundies]

I have the best possible starting hand and the opportunity to eliminate 3 players

with 200 players left and the money starting at 40th, knocking out 3 players doens't really do anything for us in terms of the tournament equity, but dropping from the chip leader down to just above average has a HUGE effect at this stage.

To me being chip leader at this stage of the tournament is not as important as eliminating 3 players.

I would be quite comfortable sitting with a just above average chip stack at this stage. There is still a long way to go.

ETA - I do realise that I am not looking at this situation completely from a mathimatical perspective. I am trying too though.

[bennymacca]

ok, so these are the EV calculations with trishan's improved formula

Equity Calculations

_________AA_____KK
Pot 1:___0.59____0.342___(as above)
Pot 2:___0.68____0.41
Pot 3:___0.79____0.5


Scenario 1 - AA

EV = 0.59*48 + 0.68*80 + 0.79*104 - 160
= +4.88

in percentage terms, this is

164.88 / (160+164.88)
= 50.75%


compare this with 59% in my original calculations, and it is significantly less


Scenario 2 - KK

EV = 0.342*48 + 0.41*80 + 0.5*105 - 160
= -58.82k

in percentage terms,

101.2 / (101.2+160)
= 38.7%

compare this with 34.2%



so what these calculations do is confirm that it is still a fold with Kings, and leans more towards a fold with aces too.

if you think you have a big edge on the field then i think its a definite fold. but if you are neutral or negative EV, then i think this is a good spot to gamble a bit.

To me being chip leader at this stage of the tournament is not as important as eliminating 3 players.

there is some maths you can do to confirm or deny this. i dont have it with me (i really need to read that mathematics of poker book, as i am basically self taught in poker maths, just using my engineering background)


my feeling is that it would be much more important to conserve your stack. i hope trishan has a book on hand with some maths, and we confirm or deny this.

[Garth Kay]

Good work Trishan, that was going to be my next step in the process but break it down even further with possible hand distribution algorithms.

Then I was going to change the scenario to 10 spots from the money and move into tournament equity and ICM/Cev calculations.

Is anyone else interested in continuing this thread or is this already starting to move too fast for too many people?

[Garth Kay]

To me being chip leader at this stage of the tournament is not as important as eliminating 3 players.

there is some maths you can do to confirm or deny this. i dont have it with me (i really need to read that mathematics of poker book, as i am basically self taught in poker maths, just using my engineering background)


my feeling is that it would be much more important to conserve your stack. i hope trishan has a book on hand with some maths, and we confirm or deny this.

You need an idea on tournament structure, payout structure and possible EV in this field to make an overall mathematical and strategic decision.

I'm interested to know how many people here would honestly fold Kings in this situation, until they read this?

[bennymacca]

Good work Trishan, that was going to be my next step in the process but break it down even further with possible hand distribution algorithms.

Then I was going to change the scenario to 10 spots from the money and move into tournament equity and ICM/Cev calculations.

Is anyone else interested in continuing this thread or is this already starting to move too fast for too many people?

to be honest, my simple pot odds thread seems to be moving too fast for most people. (no disrespect to the forumers, but thats just the way it is)

but i am definitely interested in taking this thread a lot further.

I'm interested to know how many people here would honestly fold Kings in this situation, until they read this?

i probably would have folded QQ, and snap called with KK.

[trishan]

there is some maths you can do to confirm or deny this. i dont have it with me (i really need to read that mathematics of poker book, as i am basically self taught in poker maths, just using my engineering background)


my feeling is that it would be much more important to conserve your stack. i hope trishan has a book on hand with some maths, and we confirm or deny this.

I am sure there is Ben, but I always seem to stall when I am reading Mathematics of Poker so I haven't gotten very far into it.

I would be very interested in doing a study group on that book, so if people are willing to play along it will be so nice to work through the book together.

[pundies]

Is anyone else interested in continuing this thread or is this already starting to move too fast for too many people?

Clearly over my head from the start when you base the situation completely on maths, no secret there.

I just struggle for the maths side to be more important in some situations.

[bennymacca]

I am sure there is Ben, but I always seem to stall when I am reading Mathematics of Poker so I haven't gotten very far into it.

I would be very interested in doing a study group on that book, so if people are willing to play along it will be so nice to work through the book together.

i am interested in this.

couple of others might be too.

(sent you a pm as well)

[muzzington]

I think the shorter stacks would have to have more for me to consider folding aces. You only have to worry about the 3rd player scooping to consider folding in either scenario?