You're a Bunch of Factors

This continues on from the calculating outs post i did for topic 1.
viewtopic.php?f=14&t=329

Now that we know how to calculate our outs, and work out our probability of winning a hand. We can now see, how this information can be used to guide our betting, and also whether or not a call we make is good. The reverse of this is true, As to whether or not a bet we make, can give a drawing hand bad odds for playing.

Pot Odds.

Pot odds are a good way to find out whether or not you are making a correct call at any given time in a game of poker.

The situation is.
The flop has come out, we have a flush draw. The pot preflop contained $200 in chips. On the flop, someone has led out for a bet of $50. We can use the information that we have available, to find out if we should call or fold to this bet.

With knowing the number of outs

So we have had a flop, we have a flush draw. Which gives us a total of 9 outs with 47 cards left (3 cards flop, 2 in hand).

Using this information, We know 9 cards will help us, 38 won't.
9:38
1:4.22
roughly 1:4

So we are an underdog. We are 4 to 1 against making our draw.
However we can use this information to tell us whether a call or a fold is a good or bad proposition.

So to work this into pot odds. The pot currently contains $250 ($200 from flop, plus $50 from player flop bet).

So in effect it is costing us $50 to win $250.
50:250
1:5

So this means we are making 5 to 1 on our money. With a 4 to 1 shot. Because the pot odds are bigger than our hand odds. Then we should call this bet. As we are getting the value that we are after. Realistically this call is giving us a 5:4 value. or 1.25:1. Which means for every dollar spent we make $1.25. So long term we will expect to make a profit from this call.

Now if we change the scenario to a $100 bet.
We are still 4 to 1.

But now it is costing us $100 to win $300. ($200 + $100)
100:300
1:3

So now means we are 3 to 1, with a 4 to 1 shot.
3:4
or 0.75 to 1. So what this means for every dollar we are spending we are losing 0.25c. The action that we should take, because the pot odds are smaller than our hand odds, is too fold.


Using the % figure.
Same situations.
Instead of using the ratios though we will use the %. Might make it quicker for some people to calculate, depending on which method.

So to work out whether to call or fold. We use the following calculation.

(His bet + Pot Size) X (Chance of winning hand) = “Magic Number”

So 9 outs with the turn and river to come, using the quick and dirty method is 9 x 4 = 36%

So pot is $250 ($200 + $50)

We then use the Number to decide whether or not to call or fold.
The basic rule is if the number is greater than the current bet, we call, if it is less than the current bet we fold.

So with our situation before.

250 x 36% = 90

To work out in a game you might not have access to a calculator. But some simple maths tricks can help. The percentage is based of 100. So for every 100 we have, that is our percentage unit, then its just a matter of doing it for 50's (half of our %) 25's (quarter of our %) 10's (tenth of our %).

250 x 36% = (100 x 36%) x 2 + (50 x 36%)
= (36) x 2 + (100 x 36/2) We have double the 50 but
have to half the percentage
= 72 + (100 x 18%)
= 72 + 18
= 90

So, now that we have our Number, We can use that information to help our guide. In this case 90 (the number) is above 50 (the bet). In this situation we have got the pot odds to call.

Changing to our second situation.
300 x 36% = 108
Which is above 100, which is telling us that our odds are right to call.


But hang on a second. This doesn't match up with our last scenario. Because we would have folded that hand.

The difference between this situation and the last situation is that in the first situation, we are only counting one card. Whereas in the second situation we are using the two cards (turn and river) to help our calculations.

So knowing that 9 cards can help us out of 47. this gives us a percentage of 19.1% Or roughly half of our original number.

At this point i do have to apologize if some people do not understand what has happened. This is where a lot of pot odds calculations come unstuck because people miscalculate. I will try and explain it. (I will go further with this in implied odds.)

In the both situations, we had 9 outs out of 47. Or 9 cards that can improve and 38 that don't. 9 over 47 as a percentage is 19.1% Not the 9 x 4 to give us 36 like we were using. Using the times 4 rule is for two cards to come (implied values). While we are looking at this specific time, we want to see If our call is correct mathematically.

At this point in time, we have to add in a new equation.
To win your hand on the turn or river. We have to calculate the number of outs, times it by 2 and then add 2.
Or Outs x 2 + 2 cards to come.

9 x 2 + 2 = 20%

So for our first situation.

$250 x 20% = $50
This is equal to the bet, so we would still call, as we have the right odds to stay in.

For the second situation.
$300 x 20% = $60
So since the bet is over our number, we would fold our hand.

Now we are back on track.

So main notes.

Using our outs vs the number of cards that don't help us we get a ratio. This ratio we should apply to the amount we bet vs amount we would win (rest of the pot). If the pot odds is greater than our hand odds, we would call. If the hand odds are greater than our pot odds we would fold.

Using our percentages.
Main point we don't use the times 4 or times 2 method.
We use the number of outs times 2 plus 2. To give us the snapshot at that time with a magic number
If our magic number is bigger than the bet, we would call.
If the magic number is smaller than the bet, we would fold.

I know this will generate some discussion. So please, read and if you need me to explain it, i will, i will look this over and tidy it up. As the first section took a while for me to type out. Wasn't all organised in my head.

As most of these calculations are designed to be quickly used in a game. They are not always going to be perfect numbers. The best thing any player can hope for, is to get a rough approximate and work from there.


Hope it all helps.
Cheers,
Brett

So, just to see if I got it right?

The key here is that we are only looking at the value for money of the next 1 card to make our descision -not the chance we will hit it in the next 2 cards?

so the percent is (2xouts)+2
and we times that by what we can win (not counting our contribution for this call)
If we have to put in more than that to call then we are calling against the odds

Phew

Correct Sirplus,

We are doing this as a snapshot for the next card only. Implied odds take this further but i haven't bought that it yet.

So yes the percent is the number of outs times 2 plus 2.

We then use that percent to work out how much of the pot is our magic number.

So if the bet is greater than the magic number we are calling against the odds.

If the bet is smaller than the magic number we have the odds to call.

Thats great
I however heard it on the grape vinee that usually you would raise or fold; rarely call.
How does all this help me out in that case?
Back to you for a comment Wally May

Wow, a thread about pot odds and Pete is yet to jump on and rant about how pot odds have nothing to do with poker?

lol, A+ for taking it out of context

What he's on about is I often see/hear people calling not because their cards are actually any good but rather because they'd be getting a good return on their money if they did call.

they seem to miss the fact their cards suck and they have little to no chance of actually winning the hand ie just because you have an ace doesn't mean you're going to win

BigPete33 wrote:lol, A+ for taking it out of context

What he's on about is I often see/hear people calling not because their cards are actually any good but rather because they'd be getting a good return on their money if they did call.

they seem to miss the fact their cards suck and they have little to no chance of actually winning the hand ie just because you have an ace doesn't mean you're going to win

You dont understand the concept of pot odds do you Pete?

Here we go...

what I understand Des, if that a player has NO chance of winning the hand (even if they hit that miracle ace on the river) then just cos they'd get a good return on their money (which they won't cos they'll lose) doesn't mean they should call. It's still a bad call.

BigPete33 wrote:Here we go...

Ok i wont bother then.

No Chance does not equal miracle A on the river Pete. No chance = drawing dead.
If there is any chance, no matter how slight, then, yes, pot odds do come into effect. And at no stage pre flop am I going to be worse off than 8 to 1. So if everybody limps and I'm on the button or in the SB I have the odds to call, even if I have 27os. Granted in this situation if I was to play I would probably smash the pot with any two cards, but that's me. I despise limpers, especially when I'm in the Blinds, you don't limp on my BB and you don't raise my BB more than once. LOL
So back to the odds, if you has an open ended straight flush draw, and you knew in your heart of hearts that your opponent had the full house or nut flush would you lay it down or go for the glory, pot odds be damned?