Topic 1. Calculating Outs.
Posted: Mon Jan 07, 2008 12:05 am
Hi Guys,
Decided i will start posting in this section to get some movement.
Probably go through a couple of the basic strategies and tips to help out some of the players that might not fully understand the concepts.
Also helps me relearn a lot of stuff.
Calculating outs.
One of the more basic steps in a poker game is being able to calculate your outs. So you know what kind of odds you are facing to win or lose a hand.
An "OUT" is simply cards that will improve your hand. So if you have an open ended straight draw i.e 8,9,10,J you have 4 7's and 4 q's that can improve your hand into a straight for a total of 8 outs.
With a four card flush draw i.e 7,10,Q, 2 of clubs. 13 cards to the suit minus the 4 in play. Leaves you with 9 outs.
So now we have a rough idea of what kinds of outs we are chasing. Some quick little ones to help out those still stuggling with it.
You are holding the Qc,Jc on a board of the 9d, 10c, 2,c. How many outs do you have left? So starting with the 4 card straight draw we have 8 outs, the 4 8's and the 4 k's. From the flush draw, we have 9 outs. 13 - 4 leaves 9 clubs. Gives us a total so far of 17 outs. However we have already included the 8c and the Kc from the straight draw. So now we have to go 17-2 = 15 outs. Good position.
So we have the number of outs. But what good is that? Knowing how many cards are in play (that we know off), and how many cards are left in the deck. We can work out a probability of what out chances are of hitting one of our outs.
So from the previous example Qc Jc on the 9d, 10c, 2c board. We know we have 15 outs. We only know 5 cards on the board. So that leaves 52 - 5 = 47 cards left in the deck.
Most people here usually include the burn card as a known card, but because it is upside down (barring an initial deal error) we still don't know what the card is. So we have to include it in our calculations.
Back at hand. We know 5 cards, we have 15 outs, there are 47 cards in the deck. And we still have the turn and river to come. So calculating the % of us getting a card to make our hand.
Complex method.
Its a straightforward calculation,
% of hitting a card = (outs/# of cards in the deck)x # of cards to come x 100 (to get the %).
So for the example. Flop to River.
% = (15/47)x 2 (turn and river) x 100
% = 63.8 %
So roughly 6 out of 10 times we should win this hand. or 3 in 5
Turn to river.
15 outs still, 46 cards left (we now know the turn). 1 Card to come.
% = (15/46)x1x100
% = 32.6
So now we have a rough idea of what chance we have to win the hand and can play the hand out accordingly or unless a feeling gets in the way..
Simple method.
This is the quick and easy way to work out the %'s gives you a rough idea.
For the flop to river. two cards to come.
You times the number of outs x 4
So previously example, 15 x 4 = 60%
For the river or just one card.
You times the number of outs x 2
So previous example, 15 x 2 = 30%
So quick recap.
Outs are cards that are in the deck that can improve your hand. Be careful of over counting your outs, especially in flushes and straight draws.
You can use your outs to work out the probability of a card coming to improve your hand.
Simple way of calculating the probability. Is with the turn and river to come, is times the number of outs x 4, just with the river to come, times the number of outs x 2.
Cheers,
Brett.
If anyone else wants me to try and explain certain topics, by all means. Helps me relearn it all.
Also if some people disagree with me on some points i am all up for a discussion. Will also help other people understand it as well.
Yes i know my maths is slightly dodgy too, but just doing it quick and easy for most players to work out during a game.
Decided i will start posting in this section to get some movement.
Probably go through a couple of the basic strategies and tips to help out some of the players that might not fully understand the concepts.
Also helps me relearn a lot of stuff.
Calculating outs.
One of the more basic steps in a poker game is being able to calculate your outs. So you know what kind of odds you are facing to win or lose a hand.
An "OUT" is simply cards that will improve your hand. So if you have an open ended straight draw i.e 8,9,10,J you have 4 7's and 4 q's that can improve your hand into a straight for a total of 8 outs.
With a four card flush draw i.e 7,10,Q, 2 of clubs. 13 cards to the suit minus the 4 in play. Leaves you with 9 outs.
So now we have a rough idea of what kinds of outs we are chasing. Some quick little ones to help out those still stuggling with it.
You are holding the Qc,Jc on a board of the 9d, 10c, 2,c. How many outs do you have left? So starting with the 4 card straight draw we have 8 outs, the 4 8's and the 4 k's. From the flush draw, we have 9 outs. 13 - 4 leaves 9 clubs. Gives us a total so far of 17 outs. However we have already included the 8c and the Kc from the straight draw. So now we have to go 17-2 = 15 outs. Good position.
So we have the number of outs. But what good is that? Knowing how many cards are in play (that we know off), and how many cards are left in the deck. We can work out a probability of what out chances are of hitting one of our outs.
So from the previous example Qc Jc on the 9d, 10c, 2c board. We know we have 15 outs. We only know 5 cards on the board. So that leaves 52 - 5 = 47 cards left in the deck.
Most people here usually include the burn card as a known card, but because it is upside down (barring an initial deal error) we still don't know what the card is. So we have to include it in our calculations.
Back at hand. We know 5 cards, we have 15 outs, there are 47 cards in the deck. And we still have the turn and river to come. So calculating the % of us getting a card to make our hand.
Complex method.
Its a straightforward calculation,
% of hitting a card = (outs/# of cards in the deck)x # of cards to come x 100 (to get the %).
So for the example. Flop to River.
% = (15/47)x 2 (turn and river) x 100
% = 63.8 %
So roughly 6 out of 10 times we should win this hand. or 3 in 5
Turn to river.
15 outs still, 46 cards left (we now know the turn). 1 Card to come.
% = (15/46)x1x100
% = 32.6
So now we have a rough idea of what chance we have to win the hand and can play the hand out accordingly or unless a feeling gets in the way.
. Simple method.
This is the quick and easy way to work out the %'s gives you a rough idea.
For the flop to river. two cards to come.
You times the number of outs x 4
So previously example, 15 x 4 = 60%
For the river or just one card.
You times the number of outs x 2
So previous example, 15 x 2 = 30%
So quick recap.
Outs are cards that are in the deck that can improve your hand. Be careful of over counting your outs, especially in flushes and straight draws.
You can use your outs to work out the probability of a card coming to improve your hand.
Simple way of calculating the probability. Is with the turn and river to come, is times the number of outs x 4, just with the river to come, times the number of outs x 2.
Cheers,
Brett.
If anyone else wants me to try and explain certain topics, by all means. Helps me relearn it all.
Also if some people disagree with me on some points i am all up for a discussion. Will also help other people understand it as well.
Yes i know my maths is slightly dodgy too, but just doing it quick and easy for most players to work out during a game.
