Misclick leads to tough descison.....

[bennymacca]

hi jo, thanks for tanking the time to try and digest this.

im gonna keep trying with you here


lets take a step back, and get to the simplest example i can think of, flipping a coin.

with a coin, there is 2 possible outcomes, heads or tails.

you would agree that in each individual coin spin, there is a 50% chance of a head and 50% of a tail, assuming the coin is unbiased, correct?


this percentage does not tell you the outcome of an individual spin, but it tells you, on average, how often each outcome will occur.

tails could come out 20 times in a row, then heads 50 times in a row. both of those scenarios are unlikely, but they could happen.


questions for you jo

1. does the fact that the coin has been heads 20 times in a row increase the likelihood that the next spin will be a head or a tail? or is it the same all the time.

2. if you bet $10 on heads every time, but i paid you $11 if you won, would you play this game?

3. now, the dude playing with you is rich and stupid, and he doenst wanna play any more. instead he just pays you $1 for every spin, regardless of the outcome. in the long term, which game, 2 or 3, is better?



the key point here, is that it doesnt' matter what your odds of winning in an individual hand are, what matters is the payoff when you do win.

if i told you that for $10, you had a 1 in 20 chance of winning $1 million, you would surely jump at the chance, because 1 in 20 are good odds.

[Garth Kay]

Jo,

What we are discussing here are fundamentals of poker. Pot odds, variance and equity. The fact remains if you run a scenario an infinite amount of times where x is the result 33% of the time then x will occur exactly 33% of the time. No matter what you say this is a given mathematical fact.

As poker players we use our mathematical knowledge to assist with our decisions in quantifying the optimum play, we do not take a scenario and say we only have a 45% chance of winning this hand right now but we lost so it's a bad play, we mathematically decide whether it was the correct play because if we play this scenario an infinite amount of times the pot odds dictate that we win more in the long run over an infinite mount of time.

Now granted that nobody will ever play an infinite amount of hands but this is what statistics dictate. When we hit a patch when we lose 20 races in a row, this is called variance; variance is the parameter that suggests that these 20 races are just a small moment of our complete infinite data sample, somewhere else along this infinite analogy there will be a space where we win 20 races in a row to balance out the statistics.

When discussing odds or statistics (especially when we are discussing poker hands) you can not take the end result as gospel or look at the situation as an unique outcome.

I am on the flush draw on the flop, I am heads up - I have 9 outs to make my hand, what odds do I to have to win this hand?
My opponent pushes all in and the pot is worth $1,000, what is the minimum amount he is allin before the pot odds do not support a call?

In this situation you would still study the hand as an unique incident, but the reality is your actually using an infinite data sample to make your decision.

Have you ever called off in this position?

[rcon]

my only contribution to this is a question for Jo. Ever called to hit a flush draw?

[Chris Trudgeon]

My only thinking here is he shoves knowing we are calling correct???
Ok... so surely he only ever does this with a premium hand, based on that i don't understand where 33% comes from?
Widen his range as far as 88+ ..... and i still can't find 33%?

[Garth Kay]

So you're saying he only does this with pocket pairs? He doesn't do it with AK or AQ?

[Garth Kay]

And a reg will shove here knowing that villain will fold 80% of his button raising range and call 20% of his range.

A normal player will shove a range that he believes completely beats the entire raise range of button; I would put this as wide as 88+, AJo+, ATs+

That's a huge range, but at lower stakes I would tighten this up to TT+, AJs+, AQo+.

[Chris Trudgeon]

Ok..thats makes a little more sense....if you include 88, 99, 10 10 and every other hand ATo and above you can get 31.7%

[trishan]

First let me say that this is clearly the best thread we have had in while.

Jo, I would highly recommend reading this guide to basic poker math:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/14389605/Poke ... oy-Rounder

This sounds like you:

Poker math is NOT rocket science. The basics of calculating poker odds are actually quite simple… and only require knowledge of addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division. If you made it past the 5th grade, you can learn to figure “pot odds” in no time.

Personally, I played no limit Texas Holdem for YEARS without knowing ANY of this stuff. I used my “instincts” when deciding whether or not to stay in a hand. When I finally learned some poker “math”, my skills increased considerably.

Not only because I began making better decisions at the table, but because my new skills led to me to new INSIGHTS about the game and how it’s played. Learning odds will expand your poker IQ in a way that makes learning advanced strategies and theory much easier.

[JMACK007]

That DOES sound like me, except I Actually made it to 7th Grade!!

[JMACK007]

Seriously guys, I still don't share your views here. I am probably the only one who doesn't.

benny the cunt, If you flipped a coin 20 times and it came up Heads 20 times, the chances are still 50/50 on the next spin, and every spin there after....

Just because the odds are 50/50, does not GAURANTEE that you will get an exactly even outcome....

And yes, I have called a flush draw on the flop, but also laid it down, all depending on the situation at the time....