Postby Garth Kay » Fri Jun 11, 2010 8:57 pm
I'm sorry Glenn, but in THIS case, getting offered 3 to 1 is the only reason to call against an unknown villain. Against a standard 3bet range you are a 2.7 to 1 dog at worst, yes it is a borderline call at this range, but against a player with history or a reg that range grows even wider; given you even more reasons to call.
If we changed it to 20NL and I mis click and raise to $10 and the BB jams for $20. Does it change your decision because a 0 has been knocked off the total amounts? Because in your above comment you refer to it as a $100 mistake.
If I assign an 8% 3bet range to the BB; I am 29.1% to win this hand, 0.45% to chop it up and 70.45% of the time I will lose. I am calling off $100 to win $300; to make this a profitable play I must win more than 1 in 3 times.
Therefore if we run the hand 1,000 times:
I pay $100 x 1,000 = $100,000
I lose 704.5 times
I tie 4.5 times = 4.5*200 ($half the pot returned to me) = $900
I win 291 times = 291*400 ($400 is the total pot to be won) = $116,400
Therefore I have made a profit of $17,300 over 1,000 hands in 200NL. But this is becoming to literal rather than theoretical. And this is from a hand where I am a three to one dog, but the pot odds dictate a call.
If we assign a standard 5.1% 3 bet range; we are 27.8% to win, 0.30% to tie and 72.2% to lose. So using the above 1,000 hand range.
Cost is $100,000.
I lose 722 times
I tie 3 times = 3*200 = $600
I win 278 times = 278*400 = 111,200
Which equates to a profit of $11,800 over 1,000 hands in the same position.
Now we can shrink his range even further to 3.3% which is just 99+ and AQs+ which is as tight as it gets unless you have A LOT of history with a player and even then we are only in the whole a measely $1,000 out of our $100,000 investment. This is when the call STARTS to become a bad call.
Trishan, well said in the above post, I just thought some examples were required.
