Misclick leads to tough descison.....

[Garth Kay]

Yes Jo, illogical, not you personally but the argument you present.

You are trying to use an example of variance as a positive justification for your argument.

The simple fact of the matter is that if we say there is a 33% chance of something occurring then it will occur 33% of the time. The fact that it might not happen in 100 instances is an example of variance; variance is a component of statistical understanding as is standard deviation.

Assigning a hand range of only AA or KK against an opponent's all in shove like that is also wrong, you can only tighten the hand range this much if you have a huge data sample of opponent, and I am talking history of hands in the 1000's.

A standard 3 bet range is 3 - 5% of hands, and Mike even had stats on this opponent which completely rules out a 1% 3bet shove range.

I really have no idea how to explain it better or what sort of example/metaphor I should be using.

But this thread is a great indication of why I told benny the cunt his group sessions/ think tank would not work. Too many players have their own ideas about the game and there are too many variables to decide upon the "best way" to play poker let alone specific hands.

I will say this, a lot of the content I have touched upon is used, and taken as gospel by poker professionals world wide. I am not making this stuff up or writing it on the fly. And in the end the arguments, debates and unwillingness to evolve/learn or stubborn viewpoints make me once again less willing to donate my time or knowledge to any hand discussion on this forum. And this is no indication of the posters on here but my frustration at the inability to educate or get my point across coherently.

Mike,

In answer to your OP. You have the odds to call against a known opponent who will 3bet a range greater than the top 3% of his hands. If against an unknown appointment I would strongly suggest that you decide whether better edges can be found on this table at other times whether the 50BB's can be put to better use.

For what it is worth I call 90% of the time against an unknown and a reg with history.

[Garth Kay]

And Jo, when I say illogical I do not mean in the mental capacity you perceive it but rather in the scientific/mathematical method.

An illogical argument is one that cannot be proven true because of errors in the algorithim or data used.

[JMACK007]

So which part of my argument was illogical?

[trishan]

Seriously guys, I still don't share your views here. I am probably the only one who doesn't.

benny the cunt, If you flipped a coin 20 times and it came up Heads 20 times, the chances are still 50/50 on the next spin, and every spin there after....(We are saying this too)

Just because the odds are 50/50, does not GAURANTEE that you will get an exactly even outcome.... (We are saying this too)

You say you don't share our views but this is exactly what we are saying.

[JMACK007]

I don't think that was what benny the cunt was saying. He was implying that the chances of a tail coming up after 20 heads in a row improve...

[trishan]

I don't think that was what benny the cunt was saying. He was implying that the chances of a tail coming up after 20 heads in a row improve...

Nah he isnt. lol

[JMACK007]

Sigh., anyway, Garth calls, I fold, not really the end of the world...

[trishan]

Sigh., anyway, Garth calls, I fold, not really the end of the world...

No not really. We'll just all exploit you lol. Whatever the case this thread had been good discussion and I am sure people who may not know a great deal about pot odds etc. have learnt a lot nonetheless.

[JMACK007]

Feel free to do that....

[rcon]

I tried to find a page with records for coin flips (ie, head 100+ straight) just to lighten the mood, but found this page.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 04170.html

Stunning. A coin flip is NOT a random, 50/50 proposition (I had to check the date of the article), but more like 51/49.