The final table of NPL is all luck - agree?

[gundog]

With 4 wins this season from 9 final table visits this is how I see it.

I played my normal final table game. waiting for position or hand before playing, preferably letting other players knock themselves out thus giving me a chance at the title.

My biggest win was at Berri pre deep stack 154 runners I was the chip leader at the start, played my usual game I made my move with 4 players left, Ian was seated to my right, where the blinds were I cannot remember but in the after flop play I had a 3 on the to match my A 3 os, Ian placed a 40 thousand raise I sensed weakness in his hand so I re raised 80 thousand, and he folded, the rest is history I won the event by having position and chip stack.

The other 3 wins cane from being way behind to win again I waited before making winning plays, and in one case I had the smallest chip stack at the table I started in The BB position and after folding BB & SB I was left with 10 thousand, I continually folded every hand untill I was next BB, blinds were at 5/10 so I was all in on the BB 3 others called which put 40k in front of me I had not looked at my cards at all, at the end when my hand had to shown I turned A K which gave me the win that was luck.

What won me the title was some of the best poker I played, again I laid off hand after hand letting everyone kill themselves off, when it came to head to head it was Stiffy and myself left.
Stiffy had over 100,000 i had a meare 30,000, I bluffed and raised Stiffy out of his stack by calling all in after all in or folding without seeing a flop eventually Stiffy was forced to play his remaining chips for the loss.

But in every game there is an element of luck and skill, the luck comes from the Flop Turn and River, the shill is when to play or fold, I takes a good player to lay down high pockets ie KK

[Origami]

With 4 wins this season from 9 final table visits this is how I see it.

I played my normal final table game. waiting for position or hand before playing, preferably letting other players knock themselves out thus giving me a chance at the title.

My biggest win was at Berri pre deep stack 154 runners I was the chip leader at the start, played my usual game I made my move with 4 players left, Ian was seated to my right, where the blinds were I cannot remember but in the after flop play I had a 3 on the to match my A 3 os, Ian placed a 40 thousand raise I sensed weakness in his hand so I re raised 80 thousand, and he folded, the rest is history I won the event by having position and chip stack.

The other 3 wins cane from being way behind to win again I waited before making winning plays, and in one case I had the smallest chip stack at the table I started in The BB position and after folding BB & SB I was left with 10 thousand, I continually folded every hand untill I was next BB, blinds were at 5/10 so I was all in on the BB 3 others called which put 40k in front of me I had not looked at my cards at all, at the end when my hand had to shown I turned A K which gave me the win that was luck.

What won me the title was some of the best poker I played, again I laid off hand after hand- another phrase for 'folding" letting everyone kill themselves off called losing, when it came to head to head it was Stiffy and myself left.
Stiffy had over 100,000 i had a meare 30,000, I bluffed and raised Stiffy out of his stack by calling all in after all in or folding without seeing a flop eventually Stiffy was forced to play his remaining chips for the loss.

But in every game there is an element of luck and skill, the luck comes from the Flop Turn and River, the shill is when to play or fold, I takes a good player to lay down high pockets ie KK-
--I concure

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could not say it better ' gundog ' - I like he 4 practical examples !
I welcome the day we play the same Table , a Final Table ????

you gotta know when to 'fold em'

[BigPete33]

There's just no way you can say it's all luck.

The amount of luck required is going to be different due to multiple factors such as seating position and stack size.

It is extremely possible to be short stacked and play smartly enough to progress to headsup.

When it gets to headsup, luck is so much more of a factor than the prior play on the FT which is largely due to the blind structure.

Here's a tip - if you can notice when your opponent a) rates their hand and/or b) does not rate their hand, then you will have a massive advantage. If you EVER see them not rating their hand, you should push and they will very likely fold. That simple.

[bennymacca]

heres some simple maths for you, since i am a geek

most "good" NPL players in my region (40 runner tourneys aaprox) have around 50% points percentage, a 33% FT percentage, and a 3% win percentage


Now for a minute, lets entertain the thought that IT IS ALL LUCK FROM WHEN YOU MAKE IT INTO THE POINTS

if this was the case, statistics would tell you that from being in the top 15, you would win 1/15 times, and make the final table 9/15 times, once you are in the points.

and since you make points 50% of the time, this equates to

FT percentage: 0.5*9/15 = 30%

Win percentage 0.5*1/15 = 3.33%


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so it could in fact be concluded that the skill is in making the points, and from there on, it is ALL LUCK

if you look at the stats that i calculated the other day, the averages from the 6 player's stats are uncannily similar to this.

out of the 6 people that i gave the stats for,

AVG points % = 49.7
Average FT % = 30.23
Average Win % = 2.82

does anyone else think that there is more than coincidence here?

[BigPete33]

When can I stop laughing?

[maccatak11]

Bennymacca's stats sh1t

These stats don't prove anything, only that better players will have accumulated a better stack when they reach the points compared to others, and so are bound to make more final tables and win more games.

But im sure you could twist the stats in a different way to make it look better.

[bennymacca]

i am not saying it is all luck, but i think the element of luck increases MASSIVELY the longer the tournament goes on, an obvious thing in a super turbo game.

[maccatak11]

Its true that there is an increased level of luck required in the early stages of a final table, but just as good poker players will decrease the effect that the luck of the cards has in early stages of games, good players will also minimise the amount of luck needed in final table situations also.