You're a Bunch of Factors

I have been considering setting myself a challenge lately, but have stayed clear of Poker as I find that it does not fit my current commitments (job & life).

What I have become more & more interested in is sports betting. Now I don't think I know all that much about the most popular betting sports (EPL, NFL, MLB) but I have tools avalible (websites mainly) to steer me in the right direction.

I also feel I have identified bets that are likely to win - betting 'live' after watching a teams first half efforts etc & taking small return options (not $1.01, but think $1.20 is tasty when a soccer team is 2-0 with 30 mins left etc..

NBA is also a great 'live' sport to bet on eg. bet on Lakers when Kobe is benched and the opposition take the lead for a brief moment.

Anyway, I have set some fairly loose rules after learning a few lessons running my initial $100 - first down, then up, then down and finally sitting on my current tally of $205.75

I bet on Centrebet exclusively and find that the frequency of Freebets they make avalible are fantastic.

Some other rules I try and stick to is that it is a sport I can watch on Foxtel & if I have a multi - no more that 3 legs.

If you have any hot tips feel free to post them here (especially 'live' betting) and I will endevour to post ALL of my bets with reasons why I placed them too.

I have reached my 1st goal of $200, and will be a very happy man If i can reach $500 before Santa comes down the chimney.

My next wager is $25 @ $2 on the Newcastle Jets to defeat the Wellington Pheonix this Saturday. Newcastle are in irrisistable form and international travel will not make this task any easier for the kiwi's.

Making this even more a good bet is that if it fails, my friends @ centrebet will give me another $25 to wager on any other A league fixture.

So, taking this into acount, to update my figures see below

Current Balance $180.75
Potential Earn $50

Today’s Wagers – 19 NOV 2010-11-19

So I was home for a fair chunk of today and was excited to see a Live NFL game on ESPN – Miami vs Chicago (can I get a Chi-city??)

I was surprised to see Miami were favourite, even with them at home - they were using their THIRD string QB as both their Chad’s are injured. Not knowing too much about either team & with 15 mins to kick off, I flicked to ONE HD and noted that the MAGIC VS SUNS was well into the 1st half with Orlando up a huge 15 points!!! I Scratched my head and wondered WTF has happened to the Suns lately? Whomped by the Florida AllStars (Heat) recently and now getting pwned by the Orlando 1 man band! The answer was sitting on the bench in a suit – Mr Steven Nash. No Nash = No Suns (although Hill was on fire for many minutes.)

With Howard in slight foul trouble – I took a fairly narrow line and snapped up $30 worth of the $1.35 on offer for Orlando -12.5 and flicked back to the NFL.

As I explained I like to watch a little of a game to see what is going on and if either team seems ‘switched on’. Miami were awful early, and the bears kept succeeding with 3rd and longs which gave me little confidence in either side dominating – but gave the early edge to the Bears.

With this in mind i decided that the fact that the Bears could actually gain yards (but not many) that I would wager $20 on them to kick the 1st field goal as they were in good field position and it was 3rd down. Unfortunately, as sometimes is the case, Centrebet put me on hold and it was too late and by the time they took my call the ball was sailing through the uprights for the Bears 1st 3 points.

Oh well, the Dolphins next possession was another dud, and the Bears scored another 3 points.
Miami’s next drive was promising as they made it into the Bears turf - so I put $20 on the $1.90 on offer for Miami to kick the 3rd FG. I briefly considered the TD, but thought that they would just run out of puff and settle for the FG. They ran out of puff but actually threw an interception!!
I got back on the phone and put $20 on Chicago to kick the 3rd Field Goal for $20 @ $2.20.

Huh? What? Yeah, if you are new to sports betting – i did this cos I basically changed my mind and decided that as Miami botched a fairly easy chance @ goal – then it was highly likely that they would struggle later in the game too. So I now had $40 invested to either win $4 (if Bears succeed) or lose $2 (if MIA got their act together). In the unlikely event that there was NO field goals in the 2nd half plus 9 minutes of the 2nd qtr then I would lose $40.
For the record the Bears kicked a FG and I won $4! LOL

In the 3rd Qtr and at 9-0 I decided that the game was pretty much shot to bits and that Chicago would likely win, possibly in a shut out. I put $20 on Chicago -7.5 for $1.85 for the win.

The Bears continue to look threatening whilst the Dolphins looked inept in both offence and defence.

I decided that (when the Bears were in the red zone) that the $2.30 for them to score the 1st TD was like taking candy from a baby –and slapped on $20. The Bears ground game came through and my bet was a success

At 16-0 and looking to ‘kill the clock’ I put $30 on the Bears (-10.5) @ $1.40 and sat back content.

Sure enough, the clock whittled down and it ended Chicago Bears 16 def Miami Dolphins 0.

Flicking back to the NBA and the game was done, it was just the margin that was of concern. Up by more than 30 @ 3 qtr time, the Magic relaxed and allowed the suns to outscore them 30-14 in the last qtr to win by just 16!!! I must keep an eye on this as it makes alot of sense – losing teams will often outscore teams that are miles ahead in the 4th qtr as the leading team just don’t care.

So, in summary –

Start Balance $180.75

Orlando $30 Win (-12.5) @ 1.35 WIN $10.50 $191.25

Miami $20 3rd field Goal @1.90 LOSS $20 $171.25

Chicago $20 3rd field Goal @2.25 WIN $25 $196.25

Chicago $20 1st TD @2.30 WIN $26 $222.25

Chicago $20 Win (-7.5)@1.85 WIN $17 $239.25

Chicago $30 WIN (-10.5)@1.40 WIN $12 $251.25

Also still have my outstanding A league bet on Sat nite

A $70.50 day – not too shabby I say!!

Signing off

P.S. GO JETS!!!

Getting in early with 2 multis for the weekends NFL action

ESPN tells me these are all favourites, and 4 of 5 are @ home (an important factor in NFL games where climate can vary hugely).

N'Orleans Saints (Win) + Baltimore Ravens (Win) + NY Jets (Win)@ $30 to return $52.93

KC Chiefs (-8 Win )+ P'Burgh Steelers (Win) + NY Jets (Win) @ 20 to return $63.56

Was tempted to take Jets at the line but recent home performances have been grinding wins and have no confidence in them changing things at this stage in the year as they will not rev up for a few weeks (if at all) and I am unsure if they are improving or on the wane.
Saints get R. Bush back this week and offence is showing signs of the form that won them the superbowl last year, Seattle struggle away and have a QB playing with a fractured wrist (LOL).
Ravens should crush the 1-8 Panthers even if they play on the moon
KC Chiefs are probably my riskiest selection, are 4-0 @ home against a sluggish Cardinals outfit with No ground game and a recycled QB - highlighting a 0-4 record in recent times. Taking the line to increase my return??? Argggghh.... crossing my fingers!
Steelers need to answer last weeks pumping by the Pat's and I am not convinced Oaktown are the real deal.

Wish me luck!!

Jets get up 1-0 after another exciting display of the round ball game. I think it is time to get off them though, injuries are taking their toll and I think their recent good form has alot to do with proving to the coach they should get a game against Beckham, Donovan & co.

Balance $251.25 (+$50 invested on NFL results)

I have $10 on Nebraska (-0.5) @1.91 to lead @ half time &
$10 on Nebraska (1.5) @1.91 to win

(Nebraska @ Texas A&M)


Goooooooooooooooooo Team!

Keep up the good work. Interesting to see how you go. Are you using any BR management strategies?

trishan wrote:Keep up the good work. Interesting to see how you go. Are you using any BR management strategies?

I have rough rules - do not wager more than 10% of my roll, do not have more than 3 legs in a multi, don't look for the 'big score' (read:longshots).

Slow growth based on favourable situations (similar to poker) rather than outrageous longshots or 10 leg multi's.

If you have a hot tip feel free to let me know.

For any other followers, the Nebraska Cornhuskers let me down today - and made the dissapointment worse by failing to capitalise on many opportunities to win the game.

3-0 in the 2nd qtr only to allow a game tying field goal from the Aggies (what a funny name, Aggies!) sending them into the half time break 3-3 (killing my first bet).

16 penalties for 145 yards did not help and I was surprised how 'one sided' the referreeing was. Possibly is like that in all college Football games, but I haven't watched enough to comment. Man, 90,000+ fans going ape spit is a huge advantage and it was all too much as a QB injury pretty much sealed the deal, the game ending 6-9 in favour of A&M. I actually feel a bit hard done by because Nebraska were the only 'ranked' team to lose to a lower team this weekend- curses! Geez, and talk about a boring game - 6-9!! College ball is usually high scoring, constant lead changes and exciting - this was a defensive arm wrestle highlighting sub-par QB's

RESULT = Loss $20

BALANCE = $231.25 ($50 invested in NFL multi's)

Gooooooooo Sports!

0:16 seconds from Disaster, until Santonio Holmes plucked a sweet little 6 yard reception to salvage a 30-27 win over the Texans. All the other legs got over the line easy, with KC proving my concerns at -8 was no concern at all and remain unbeaten at home. Pittsburgh returned to business as usual, NO are ramping up for another superbowl tilt and the ravens just got it done.

So in summary,

Opening Balance = $231.25

Multi 1 $20 bet, Return = $63.76
Multi 2 $30 bet, Return = $52.93

Closing Balance = $347.74

Very happy with Monday's effort - shame I had to work and could not sweat the results!

Ok, so to try and round out a successful Week 11 in the NFL I have placed 2 bets on the Monday Night (Midday tomorrow our time) Football Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers.
Chargers are favourties with an respectable 3-1 @ home and the Broncos are 1-3 away from Mile high stadium. In fact the Chargers only home loss came against Tom Brady's NE Pat's.
Denver have the potential to put up big offensive numbers - but do not do it enough.
The line is -9, but i have played it safe (as is my mantra) and used Centrebets Pick Your Own line (Forever to be refered to as PYOL from now on) and put $30 on SD -5.5 @ $1.46. I think that these 2 teams, with everything to play for (AFC West-wise) should put their spit fire offences into effect and have put $20 on the game score being over 50.

This game would be great to live bet on as touchdown betting alone should give 7+ (if my high scoring predictions come true) opportunites to capitalise.

Closing Balance = $297.94 ($50 invested on above bets)

Gogogogogogogogogogogogo (hey) CHARGERS!!!!!

Good going mate, was considering doing this betting mainly on Tennis and NBA

Nice read on your insights

I looovee sports betting...multis, live ect, its brilliant.
I am very interested to see how you travel.
I have been sticking to 4 leg multis recently and am in hot form, but the last 3 i have lost in the last game by a tiny margin, so getting a sweat every time.
Ill put more time and focus into it later on though.
Keep up the run!