You're a Bunch of Factors

Hi All,

I played this event last week and had some interesting hands pop up. I thought I would post some of the more testing hands on here for discussion. I won't reveal the results until I have quite a few responses.

Also please note that payout jumps do not hold influence until Hand 5.

Hand 1.

It's late into Day 1 (Friday night), I am still going to play both flights tomorrow. Blinds are at 2,000/4,000 and we have 20 minutes until the end of Day 1.

Hero: 100,000 - SB
Villain: 60,000 - CO

Villain has open shipped the last 40% of hands (4/10) each time he has shown an Ace.

All action folds to villain he open ships. I look down at [9c] [9s] .

What do I do?

Hand 2.

Early on Day 2. Blinds are 2,000/4,000 with a 400 ante; Full ring.

Hero: 320,000 - BB
Villain: 220,000 - HJ

Villain is fairly active but not overly aggressive post flop. Is raising and c betting a lot of flops to take down pots. Raises in LP when folded to him almost half of the time (after 4 orbits).

Villain raises to 10K. Hero calls additional 6,000 with [4s] [5h]

FLOP: [4c] [kc] [js]

Hero checks and Villain bets 12,000. Hero calls.

TURN: [5c]

Hero checks, Villain bets 18,000. Hero raises to 42,000. Villain tank calls.

RIVER: [qh]

Hero leads for 55,000 and Villain snap shoves all in for total of 155,000.

Hero should?

Hand 3

In the money, blinds are 8,000/16,000 with a 1,000 ante. Hero is UTG with [as][ks]. Villain is a solid player

Hero: 480,000
Villain: 220,000 - BB

Hero raises to 40,000 from UTG. Action folds to BB who calls.

FLOP: [jc] [5d] [7s]

Villain checks and hero leads for 68,000, villain moves all in for his remaining 112,000 (total of 180,000).

Hero should?

Hand 4.

Much later in the day, I think there is 40 or so left. Blinds are 15,000/30,000 with a 3,000 ante.
I am one again UTG with about 1.1 million. Villain this time is BB, who is a very solid player who always protects his blinds and has made some very solid moves to accumulate chips.

Hero: 1.1 million. UTG with [ad] [qd]
Villain: 500,000 - BB

Hero raises to 75,000. Villain calls.

FLOP: [jd] [9c] [7s]

Villain checks. Hero leads for 120,000. Villain moves all in.

Hero??

Hand 5

Final Table - blinds are 50,000/100,000 with a 10K ante. Average stack is 1.7million.
Hero is chip leader with 3million. Second in chips is UTG with 2.75 million.

Next out receives $1,000. 1st is 20,000, 2nd is 15,000 and 3rd is 10,000. 4th is 7,000 and from there it drops off to 1.7K for ninth.

UTG limps and action folds to hero on the button. Hero raises to 300,000 with [7c][7s]. Villain calls.

FLOP: [9s] [4s] [6d]

Villain leads for 800,000.

Hero??

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 1.

going on what you said about villain being very active, i think you are solidly ahead of his range and i think we can make the call.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 2.

here i dont like the way you played it on the turn. i would rather flat the turn and evaluate. by raising the turn, there are very few hands we get value from. i think a lot of hands like AcKx would actually shove turn, so a tank call would worry me a lot more. this leaves sets, made flushes, and possibly something like KJ or KQ or AK. now on the river, i doubt anything but a made flush would shove here. pretty sick spot really. i think if we pot control turn, then it makes the decision on the river a bit easier, because we can then decide to either bet-fold or check call and it costs a lot less.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 3

this is kind of a sucky spot, i think you have to call, you have to call 60 odd thousand more to win a pot of nearly 200000, i think your 6 out draw is enough to be calling here. and some of the time, i think you actually might be ahead. if villain is a thinking player, he would expect you to cbet 100% of your range, and that board is pretty dry, doesn't really hit your range that much at all.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 4.

as weird as it sounds, i think this is actually a pretty clear call. there are a TON of possible straight draw hands in villains range, some of which we actually dominate, like KQ, QT, KT.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 5

this is a pretty gross spot given that you are chip leader at the time, and i assume that the villain is second in chips. this is one of those spots where you might be way ahead, but it is a pretty high variance play to find out. i think calling is bad here as i would expect a second barrel from villain almost all the time, which means we have to pay a lot to find out. if we want to continue in the hand, the other option is to raise-fold as a bluff which would definitely test villain out as he would have to have serious balls to be shoving light given that he is near the top of the chip stacks as well.

but i think the best option in this case is to just fold and keep a healthy stack. given that we are chip leader and only have 36bb, i would assume that there are many other shorter stacks around 10bb, and i think we can wait for a much better spot and use ICM to our advantage in putting the short stacks to the test who are sweating the pay bumps.

Congrats Garth on making the final table!

In Hand 1, do we assume the BB is probably not going to play if you call? In other words is his stack of any importance to the analysis?

In Hand 2 I guess we're trying to figure how the snap-shove on the river defines his turn "tank calling" range. I think his HJ range is somewhat wide and includes hands like Q10/K10/J10, suited aces, pocket pairs and some other suited connectors. Bet on the flop doesn't really reduce his range that much as he is likely to c-bet his whole HJ range.

The bet and then tank-call is interesting. He could do this with Kx Jx and most definitely Acx and A 10. If the tanking looks genuine we can assume he hasn't made a flush just yet. He could very well be wondering if you are on a flush. This is strange as if he thinks there is a possibility that you have the flush then the river would not make much of a difference as his hand can't improve and so calling as opposed to jamming would be the right move. He could also have QQ which might cause him to wonder if you have a King on the turn. The river improves hands like A10/QJ/QK/QQ but not better than a flush. Maybe he was hollywooding on the turn with a flush or is confident you don't have a flush? I think you should fold. What do you beat? Top pair? I don't think you have a winning hand here a large percentage of the time.

Without stoving his range on Hand 3, it seems like you would have to call. I think even is his range is reduced to premium hands there might be a mathematical argument for calling.

We definitely have to pull out the stove on hand 4.

Tough spot. Obviously payouts come into it and there is that discussion about whether you can, given your edge over the field, fold and find a better spot against anyone but the second in chips. Very tough balancing act. You have a decent hand but the villain is the only who can do you harm. Fold and wait for a better spot? Hard to say.

Firstly, Congrats Garth, fantastic effort!!!

It would've been great to make Final Table with you.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 1.

This decision is mainly based on whether you were happy to lock in the $100k [which was avg chips] or just try to get the stack as big as possible knowing you still have 2 more sessions to go [keeping in mind, that only about 10% of the fields were getting through to Day 2].

In saying all that, the correct decision is to make the call as I think the only hands to be worried about would be 10's or J's as I don't think he would shove with Q's or higher.

Most likely he would have Ax, Smaller Pair or even KQs.

I would guess that you'll be around a 65% fav on his range.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 2.

I think this is a definite call.

It makes no sense for him to shove the river to a bet unless he has the nut flush, maybe set Q's but the most likely scenario is that he's bluffing [especially if he's holding the [ac]].

If he doesn't have the nut flush on the turn, he is putting you all-in cause he would be worried you might be holding the [ac].

Very unlikely he has the str8 cause I don't think he would be calling for a gut shot unless he had [ac]10.

And he would flat call the river with Top Pair or 2 pair or even a smaller set but very unlikely since you have [4s] [5h].

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 3.

I would call almost every time as you are pot committed once you c-bet and you'll still have $240k if you lose [around 15BB] vs $352 if you fold and $700plus if you win the hand. Pretty easy decision at this point.

The only hands that have you crushed would be a set but I don't think he would shove over the top on that board, he would just flat call you.

Obviously, AJ would be the hand you are praying he doesn't have.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 4.

I would fold in this situation as I don't think he is check-raising you with nothing for his tourny, being a solid player.

Yes, he may be drawing but he could easily have 2 Pair or even flopped the str8 and since you've raised UTG, he knows you're most likely strong, therefore, Top Pair or Over Pair would call his ALL-IN.

Garth Kay wrote:Hand 5.

I think this is a pretty easy fold, calling is not an option.

He has limped UTG which could mean small pair, connectors or even suited Ace.

This board connects a lot with that range, especially a set and it makes sense that he would bet out to protect against a flush draw or hoping you have an Over Pair.

I think if he missed that board, he would check/call to see a turn or just fold to any bet.

It just doesn't make sense to bluff you out of the pot unless he has a really good read on you and even then, he would check/raise you rather than lead out.