You're a Bunch of Factors

Game: - $20 Double or Nothing - 10 seater.

6 players remaining, im 2nd in chips with a bit over 2500

3 players have less than 1000

Chip leader has 3500 or so and makes a 4xBB raise. (600 i think)

I have AA and fold.

Standard?

Pretty simple IMO, do you agree?

Any read on player , ?

Easy fold.

With nothing to be gained by finishing first, you shouldn't be playing at all.

Read don't come into this at all, only table position, if you are iso HU with a guy that isn't the chip leader your play might change, but no point risking ANY chips at all when a payday is just possibly a hand away.

Yep..agreed

I played alot of those DON's a while back and the short stacks can hang around for ages............ and your currently comfortable stack can become shakey very quickly if you play NO hands and await the bubble burst.

Why not jam? He won't likely call & you may get one of the shorties to call and face you with the best possible starting hands.

Laying it down is fine - but it is not the best option by a long way, blinds seem pretty low so the game could have alot more play in it and strange things happen.

If the CL raised it up with A8, KQ, J10 or something and a 1000 stack shoves with AJ or similar - the CL is then (likely) committed to call for the extra 200-300, loses (most likely). This means one short stack is now medium, along with you and the once CL - leaving 3 shorties with plenty of time (relative to blinds) to pick their spot , whilst your stack is ever dwindling, possibly to oblivion.

If there was a sub 500 chip stack it would become super simple to fold.

I like the Jam here.

In all seriousness; if you want to know if it is the right move you should use ICM.

How often would you say that the CL is going to call a shove?

i think the CLs calling range against us is QQ+ and thats it

bennymacca wrote:i think the CLs calling range against us is QQ+ and thats it

Depends on his stats and what type of player he is.
His calling range could be massive is he is paying a loose agg type of game or is a spewtard who is just getting lucky.

In any case I think you will find it is +cEV to ship in this spot. I am going to do the sums now.

Ok so here is what I used and inputted into my ICM calculator:

Blinds are 75/150 no antes

Villain raise was to 600

There are no other callers and Hero is in position and there are no over callers.

Effective resteal stack is 2500

Villain is slightly lag with stats of 28/22.

Villain will call of with top 15% of hands 55+,A2s+,KJs+,QJs,A8o+,KQo

Villain will fold to resteal 30% of the time.

Bubble factor of 4.5 attributed (dealing with chip leader and stacks, against smaller stacks it is about 2.5) and I do not allow for overcallers in this situation.

RESTEAL ICM dictates we fold everything; AA is unexploitable and is therefore not a resteal and is entirely up to you how to play it.

If we use a simple PUSH ICM analysis we do not ship any hands but AA; your long term ROI is only 12.1%. It is still a profitable move over the long run, ONLY if it is an open and not a re ship.

So in closing, due to the bubble factor and the minimal ROI is it assumed that folding AA here is the correct play.