You're a Bunch of Factors

Got this one last night, what should have been my play here?

***** Cassava Hand History for Game 111168410 *****
$500/$1,000 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 05 07 2010 22:18:23
Tournament #27550345 $0.50 + $0.05 - Table #7 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 1: ( $26,776 )
Seat 2: ( $27,795 )
Seat 4: ( $21,389 )
Seat 5: ( $12,745 )
Seat 6: ( $17,840 )
Seat 7: mrsmooth1981 ( $15,968 )
Seat 10: ( $10,372 )
mrsmooth1981 posts small blind [$500]
Seat 10 posts big blind [$1,000]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mrsmooth1981 [ Td, Th ]
Seat 1 folds
Seat 2 calls [$1,000]
Seat 4 folds
Seat 5 folds
Seat 6 raises [$17,740]

Bit of background, Seat 6 has an aggression factor of 9.5 preflop and 11.0 post flop, is playing very loose, history over 120 hands

Snap call (bearing in mind it will be my stack) or fold?

Don't post results.

Call here, but you're more than likely flipping a large % of the time.

Did fold ever go through your mind?

AceLosesKing wrote:Don't post results.

Call here, but you're more than likely flipping a large % of the time.

Did fold ever go through your mind?

very briefly

You're SB here @ 500 and Button puts you allin? fold mate. even if you are in front, 5 cards to hit one of his 2 overs (if in fact he hasn't got you dominated already with an over pair, which is more than likely).....plus seat 2 is yet to act, what's your read/stats on him?

Ask yourself this, what does a call/lose do for you? you are out of the tourney right? What does a fold do for you? You lose 500 chips out of 15K+, so not really a big deal. There will be better situations to commit those chips a little later, even if it is on the button with 72 when all is folded around to you (not something I would recommend, but probably a better situation than calling in the situation you put forward).....

I'd rather have QQ+ - AQs+ in your situation, otherwise it is a gamble at best....

What range of hands do you think the person pushing all in has?

JMACK007 wrote:You're SB here @ 500 and Button puts you allin? fold mate. even if you are in front, 5 cards to hit one of his 2 overs (if in fact he hasn't got you dominated already with an over pair, which is more than likely).....plus seat 2 is yet to act, what's your read/stats on him?

Ask yourself this, what does a call/lose do for you? you are out of the tourney right? What does a fold do for you? You lose 500 chips out of 15K+, so not really a big deal. There will be better situations to commit those chips a little later, even if it is on the button with 72 when all is folded around to you (not something I would recommend, but probably a better situation than calling in the situation you put forward).....

I'd rather have QQ+ - AQs+ in your situation, otherwise it is a gamble at best....

This.

If you know players Agg factor what is VPIP, PFR and Steal %?

bennymacca wrote:What range of hands do you think the person pushing all in has?

the person playing had pushed on j7 suited preflop 3 hands before to triple up. this person 10 hands before this one was down to 1.5 BB's, and had managed to triple up with a flush, and then jammed the next hand with a weak ace, against pocket j's

garth - i'll post that when i'm home tonight

Garth Kay wrote:If you know players Agg factor what is VPIP, PFR and Steal %?

this is pretty important info here.

mr_smooth81 wrote:Seat 6 has an aggression factor of 9.5 preflop and 11.0 post flop

im not quite sure what you mean by preflop aggression factor. do you mean PFR - i.e the percentage of hands he raises with?

mr_smooth81 wrote:the person playing had pushed on j7 suited preflop 3 hands before to triple up. this person 10 hands before this one was down to 1.5 BB's, and had managed to triple up with a flush, and then jammed the next hand with a weak ace, against pocket j's

ok, so we are assuming that he is jamming pretty light then. this is crucial.



lets assume for a minute that he has a "standard" shoving range, which would be about 10% i think

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,222,585,056 games 0.657 secs 1,860,860,054 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.740% 51.10% 00.64% 624688068 7872078.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 48.260% 47.62% 00.64% 582152832 7872078.00 { 88+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }



against this range, you are flipping pretty much.

if his range was this tight, then i think its a fold. all of the chip stacks are pretty even, so a double up here still doesn't guarantee you a really high finish. similarly, if you fold you are still in touch with the leaders, it is not critical that you need a double up just yet.


but if we think he is jamming really wide, up to and including J7s, then that extends out to the top 34% of hands. in this case, it becomes a pretty clear call.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

4,119,803,424 games 2.235 secs 1,843,312,493 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.618% 64.21% 00.41% 2645146968 16995354.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 35.382% 34.97% 00.41% 1440665748 16995354.00 { 55+, A2s+, K4s+, Q6s+, J7s+, T8s+, 98s, A4o+, K8o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }



the question is, do you think this person would tighten up after he has tripled? he now has a decent stack after the triple up.

do you think the player is good enough to realise that people would have seen that he tripled up with J7 earlier on, and so is now shoving with a monster in the hope that someone will pay off light? or is it more of a case of "i haz pair, arrin"


i am leaning towards a fold in this case, but its right on the borderline i think.

Player Jammed with J7 to triple up. You have to presume that villain was jamming with 4 -7BB's. There is nothing unreasonable about this jam depending on position.

Jamming with a weak A might seem unreasonable, but again open shoving with A5s on the button or cutoff is a reasonable player when you have 20 or less BB's.

In OP's scenario you do realise we are talking about a 15BB shove on the button after one limper in this spot? Largest stack on the table is 25BB.

Considering it is a 55c game I lay down the TT, in anything higher than a $5 game I will more than likely stack off. Noone at the level of 55c is shoving a loose range with a 15BB stack.