You're a Bunch of Factors

Here's one I found interesting from the recent 888pl Online Champs High Rollers Event. I cant remember the exact details because I still cant get my HEM to work with 888, but the hand has been on mind since it happened....

Someone can probably give the exact prizes but I think approx numbers spark similar decisions. It is a $50 buy in, 50 starters, down to 25, playing over 3 tables. Avg stack now T20,000, blinds are 300/600 with an ante. 1st place approx $800, 2nd approx $500, paying down to 5th. Dakota is the Bounty and is worth a Grand Final ticket($500-$750).

I've got T25,000, couple of hours in, just over average, and the bounty is on my direct right. Bounty is down to T10,000 after a few hands didn't go his way. He has lost over 2/3 of what was once a big stack and is starting to loosen up. He has also made several comments in the chatbox regarding getting boozy. For the sake of discussion, lets say he is playing VPIP 25% and PFR 15% after playing considerably tighter earlier.

Action folds to the Bounty in mid position and he open shoves his last 15-20 bb. Action on me in the CO with tight players in the blinds and on the button. I look down at A7suited. This is the first time he has open shoved.

I haven't played much with Dakota, so I don't have any specific reads. The question is, when this player shoves pre flop for 15-20 bb, what is the range we can put him on( not Dakota specifically, but a bounty in any tournament that has lost a chunk and maybe lost interest...or at least that is what he wants us to think) and then what range is it correct to call with?

After some serious thought and a bunch of pokerstoving I think it is a call as A7 suited wins 32% vs a 5% range and 38% vs a 10% opening shove range. And even if I put him on AA or KK, I'm still 25%. So by calling I have a minimum 25% equity of the $500 bounty, which is $125, plus if I lose I still have half an average stack worth of equity in the main prizepool of approx $2500(25 players left, average equity is $100) half average equals $50, so my total (minimum) equity calling here is $175. If I fold my equity remains at $125(about 25% above the average stack).

I don't play bounty tournaments like this often, tournies with such massive bounties in relation to the prizepool are not that common. For the record I folded, but the more I think about it the more I want to call...

yep, at worst you have a 1/4 chance at $500.

so thats basically like getting second in the tourney, when there is still 3 tables left.

definitely worth getting it in even if you know you are behind, and especially if you still have chips left afterwards.

the only thing you have to worry about it someone else behind you picking up a decent hand, but that is unlikely to happen with only the blinds to act.


so, gmatical and jmack im looking at you , this is a time where i think getting it in behind is ok.

the equity as a 25% shot still beats most of the cash places, and you are nowhere near the cash.

if this was on the bubble, and you were second in chips and dakota was first, then different story, becasue you can basically fold yourself to a guaranteed cash.

Mike, wouldn't mind getting onto MSN, and comparing hands there, cos obviously I won the GF ticket from getting Dakota out, and seeing where I called down light if you would have won/had better hands.

I mean, the hand I won on, I was in front, but it was a similar situation. Figured I would be behind, but the ticket involved, plus the short hit to my stack meant I had to call.

bennymacca wrote:
so, gmatical and jmack im looking at you , this is a time where i think getting it in behind is ok.

I love the idea of getting it in here (as long as we are fairly sure the 'tight' blinds fold).

The GF bounties make a HUGE difference in these tourneys - I am not surprised Garth and Co copped 'bad beats' because the incentive to knock them was so high!!

I would flip my $50 buy in for a $750 (or $500 - not sure which it was) payday any day of the week and twice on Sundays.

Especially with the knowledge that if i lose i survive with a stack and the bounty stays beside me.

I think it would ultimately come down to my opinion on his play in the hands that 'didn't go his way'.

Hindsights always 20/20 tho

Are we sure Dakota was a GF ticket bounty ? ?

Where/when was this confirmed ?

As for getting it in when a bounty is all in ... for sure the prize is there for the taking ! !

get it in ....