You're a Bunch of Factors

people that know where this question comes from PLEASE DO NOT ANSWER

i am looking at you aaron.

i thought this question was interesting, and it relates to a possible leak in my own game.

You’re playing $1/$2 Hold'em at your local casino.

Effective stacks are $180

you are dealt [qh] [qs] on the button.

In this hand it’s folded to a decent but loose-ish regular in the cut-off who raises to $8. You three-bet him to $24 and everyone else folds.

He calls and the flop comes [ad] [5s] [2c]

He checks. (pot is $51)

1. What should you do? Vote in the poll above, and give a reason why you think that.

2. give me a plan for the rest of the hand, after you make your decision on the flop

I would bet $35. Checking gives you no information as to the strength of his hand. If he re-raises then I think I am done with the hand. If he calls we reasses on the turn. I think we need to make one more bet on the turn if it is checked to us on a safe card, which would mean any 99-JJ type hands would probably fold and KK prob might fold too. If he leads into us on a safe card on the turn then we might call and reassess on the river. I think by the river if he checks into us we check back.

I don't even know what hand you're referring to.

Check back flop, bet any turn if he checks ($42), re-asses river.

or.

Check back flop, call turn if he leads, re-asses river.

I like questions like this. because its an extremely standard situation that i certainly screw up a lot.

I think too often i bet/fold here, when im two streets from showdown (or bet/call and spew off some chips). Definate case for keeping the pot small on this board i think, so check back. If he leads the turn i call and reassess on river, but if he checks i can bet most safe cards (he aint gonna check an ace twice unless its top set).

Actually, basically what aaron said.

This is a good discussion for me because basically i know that i c-bet too often (like 90% of the time). Villains know this and i get check/raised on flops like this and have to lay it down a lot - which tilts me. So i dont really know, against a loose player i might check back, but against a tight player i might bet.

good discussion so far. keep it going

Just realised where this is from

edit: I'd like to re-iterate that betting is really bad on this flop. The opponent is described as a decent but loose reg, which means a few things:

1/ He is capable of making moves with air on this flop, including c/r, which makes the rest of the hand really hard to play for is.
2/ He can float us with any sort of hand, with the intention of getting us to fold on the turn.
3/ As he is loose, he can put it in light. Again hard to hero call.

What does betting really do here? Say he has a hand like 66-JJ, he will call one street at best. Now, if we check back the flop and lead the turn, he'll be more inclined to call (depending on the card) and we can (possibly) go for two streets of value (turn/river). All broadway/no pair hands fold, unless he wants to get tricky. Furthermore, ALL Aces will call the flop. He may plan on c/c with something like A6-AT.

Betting does nothing but make the hand harder to play.

AceLosesKing wrote:Just realised where this is from

yep, so please dont give it away

I'm going to go on.

This is not a hand where we want to get all the chips in the middle, unless he shows us JJ and announces all in. We can go for two streets of value, max (barring a Q drops). If he's loose he may get out of line and hero us with TT if the board falls A5279.

A few scenarios I've ran through my head:

Checking back flop, he leads turn

This would depend on the turn card and (the most important factor) how much he leads. If the turn drops a flush draw, is he the type of player that is liable to lead with one? I would think most players would lead with practically every pair/draw after the PFR checks back this dry, Ace high, flop. Unless the card is a K, I am calling nearly every turn bet. Calling the river is more opponent dependent, and will be based on reads/tells & bet sizing.

Checking back flop, he checks to us

Easy bet. I actually think something like $30-38 is a better sizing, as worse pairs are more liable to call. If he folds, he folds (and was never calling anyway) but if he calls... this is where we can get value. Checking back river/betting is equally fine, I'm more likely to check back though (the live passive player in me breaking out ).

Checking back flop, he c/r us

The worst scenario. If its all in we should never be calling, and its a bit hard to think of a sizing we would call. I am pretty much turbo mucking to a min raise at $1/$2. We have to consider what hands he would do this with on the turn. C/r any pair worse than ours is just horrible, so I think his c/r would be air/Aces/hands he wants to get in. In saying that, being a loose reg he is definitely capable of making moves on us/out-leveling us.

very good points aaron.

are there any people out there besides trishan that think a bet is the go?

bennymacca wrote:are there any people out there besides trishan that think a bet is the go?

Negative, I won't put myself in a position to be outplayed on the flop.