You're a Bunch of Factors

Im witts22. I wonder what the chances are of this. Has anyone else had a big showdown like this one?


Full Tilt Poker Game #19318982323: $26 Token Frenzy (146989643), Table 11 - 60/120 - No Limit Hold'em - 20:17:29 ET - 2010/03/16
Seat 1: thoff101 (2,105)
Seat 2: ajscarb (1,160)
Seat 3: ThrOtherKind (1,015)
Seat 4: MuffDaddyDSP (1,060)
Seat 5: offthehizzle (2,075)
Seat 6: contin3ntal (1,495)
Seat 7: YourtLH (935)
Seat 8: witts22 (983)
Seat 9: JRYE (2,112)
YourtLH posts the small blind of 60
witts22 posts the big blind of 120
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to witts22 [As Ac]
JRYE raises to 420
thoff101 folds
ajscarb raises to 1,160, and is all in
ThrOtherKind folds
MuffDaddyDSP folds
offthehizzle folds
contin3ntal folds
YourtLH folds
witts22 has 15 seconds left to act
witts22 calls 863, and is all in
JRYE calls 740
ajscarb shows [Ks Kd]
witts22 shows [As Ac]
JRYE shows [Qd Qs]
*** FLOP *** [7c 5h 7h]
*** TURN *** [7c 5h 7h] [Ts]
*** RIVER *** [7c 5h 7h Ts] [4c]
ajscarb shows two pair, Kings and Sevens
JRYE shows two pair, Queens and Sevens
ajscarb wins the side pot (354) with two pair, Kings and Sevens
witts22 shows two pair, Aces and Sevens
witts22 wins the main pot (3,009) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 3,363 Main pot 3,009. Side pot 354. | Rake 0
Board: [7c 5h 7h Ts 4c]
Seat 1: thoff101 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: ajscarb showed [Ks Kd] and won (354) with two pair, Kings and Sevens
Seat 3: ThrOtherKind didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: MuffDaddyDSP didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: offthehizzle didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: contin3ntal (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: YourtLH (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: witts22 (big blind) showed [As Ac] and won (3,009) with two pair, Aces and Sevens
Seat 9: JRYE showed [Qd Qs] and lost with two pair, Queens and Sevens

i have had AA into KK into AK into JJ before

folded my kt to a 3 and 4bet, of kk and ak.

Have definitely seen aa v kk v qq before

Remember one hand I had once on FT vividly.

MTT. Early on. I was middle stack on the table around 4000 i think. I was on the button. Blinds 100/200.

Dealt [ac as] on the button.

UTG makes it 800.
UTG +1 is all-in for 1200.
UTG +2 is all in for 5000.
Folds to me. I call all-in.
Folds to BB. He calls all-in for 120.
UTG calls and has everyone covered.

BB [qd qh]
UTG [ad ah]
UTG +1 [kd kh]
UTG +2 [kc ks]
Me [ac as]

I can't remember the exact board, but the flop was 3 hearts, turn was a straight draw for the queens, river was another heart.

Obviously rigged IMO

firstly, caleb that is sick!

secondly,

baydonvic wrote:I wonder what the chances are of this

meh i am bored

combinations of aces = 4C2 = 6
all possible card combinations = 52C2 = 1326

therefore chance of getting aces = 1/221

now, given that you have aces, the chances of 2 other people having QQ and KK are 8C2 * 1/221^2 = 1 in 1744.


extending that out to the chances that 3 people on a table have at least QQ,

there are 18 combinations of cards QQ+

so we have 18/1326 * 17/1326 * 16/1326 = 1 in 476120.

but given that we are at a 9 handed table, and not a 3 handed table, we have to multiply by the number of 3 handed combinations at a 9 handed table, i.e 9C3 = 84,

i.e 1 in 5669. - not really that much when you think about it.

at a 6max table, it is 1 in 23806.

Last State Finals I was the QQ holder.

Ran into KK and AA.

KK held up, hitting a one-outer!

bennymocha wrote:meh i am bored

Ok then while you are crunching numbers benny the cunt here's one for you

Scenario; live game 6 handed
3 hands in a row I was dealt 45

Yes! same cards same suit 3 hands in a row.

benschke wrote:

bennymocha wrote:meh i am bored

Ok then while you are crunching numbers benny the cunt here's one for you

Scenario; live game 6 handed
3 hands in a row I was dealt 45

Yes! same cards same suit 3 hands in a row.

Odds are much higher in a live game as real people aren't as good at shuffling as a random number generator.

Don't know if I agree with that Caleb.
Might be slightly higher, but I don't think it's much higher.

It is funny though when people say "Did you shuffle??" for whatever reason

8 Handed...

Hand 1: Player is UTG. 3rd and 11th cards have to be [4h] [5h] (in either order)
Hand 2: Player is BB. 2nd and 10th cards have to be the [4h] [5h] (in either order)
Hand 3: Player is SB, 1st and 9th cards have to be the [4h] [5h] (again in either order)

This also doesn't take into consideration people being knocked out and assumes the same number of players.

After each hand, players' cards are usually near each other - either right on top, or close to it, due to mucking and showdowns. The fact that someone can receive similar/same cards almost proves MORE than enough shuffling!

Also, in three hands example, this is the result of the cards after being cut.. adding to the notion.

I was half joking.

Half.