You're a Bunch of Factors

I can't get any HH converter's to work with 888, so apologies for the assault of text.

History with villian: He limped ATss UTG, I went to 40c with AQo from MP, he's the only caller. Flop 7 high, two spades, it goes check check. Turn Jh, he fires 30c into $1, I call. River pairs a 6, he bets 30c into $1.40ish, I call and win. I would have had him covered by about $1 (I was sitting with $11 at the start of the hand).

Reads on villian: Only one, bar the ATss hand. I didn't see the action go down pre, but the flop fell 6h 8h 3d, lead of 40c, raise to $2.20, and he went to $4.60, both folded. In chat he said he had QQ, the 3bettor said he folded 77 there. I don't concentrate 100% at 5/10c, was 3tabling at the time, and you only need to vb everyone anyway.

My image: This one is odd. I called down on the AQ hand, but apart from that I had been taking down a lot of pots preflop with c bets, opening hands on the button etc. I did check back the odd hand recently, so he could've thought I was weak postflop.

I had shoved for around $2-$4 with marginal holdings (never called) earlier because I was bored. But don't know if he was there for that. I stacked a player at the table when I lead into the BB in a limped pot with 44 on a 33Kr flop, checked turn through, 4 river obv he has 37 and I rape him.

#Game No : 200324275
***** Cassava Hand History for Game 200324275 *****
$0.05/$0.10 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 25 07 2009 03:53:41
Table Nalchik (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: Wotag ( $1.90 )
Seat 3: 856766 ( $12.83 )
Seat 4: 78999987 ( $8.46 )
Seat 6: rundas13 ( $12.56 )
Seat 7: NightOwl62 ( $18.10 )
Seat 8: Aces2Kings ( $12.90 )
Seat 9: Rotti116 ( $5.98 )
Seat 10: DrGreff ( $1.55 )
Wotag posts small blind [$0.05]
856766 posts big blind [$0.10]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Aces2Kings [ Kd Ad ]
78999987 calls [$0.10]
rundas13 folds
NightOwl62 folds
Aces2Kings raises [$0.30]
Rotti116 folds
DrGreff folds
Wotag folds
856766 calls [$0.20]
78999987 calls [$0.20]
** Dealing flop ** [ 8h 6c Ah ]
856766 checks
78999987 bets [$0.45]
Aces2Kings raises [$1.40]
856766 folds
78999987 raises [$3.05]

???

i would get it in here, there are plenty of worse aces that fishies will take this line with. if they flop a set on you, then meh

Im am getting it in here. As stated you are ahead of plenty of Ax hands and pp, and only behind sets. A lot of people would flat a set of 8's or 6's here too (although im rr pre with 88 here), but there are a few draws out there so that might have stopped our villain on this occasion.

Snap shove and hope he has AT.

my gut feeling is that you have just run into

"The Beast"

which is unfortunate as i also would have got my money in at this point.

There is still 2 aces in the deck you could always suck out on him

(krunchie if his opponent has the beast he will need both the aces, or an ace and a board pair thats not a 6)

Is A6 or A8 in his calling range for a 3x bet pre? Probably. I'd say he has either got two pair or flopped a set. Either way you aren't looking great. You can definitely eliminate the flush draw as he would most likely flat your raise. AQ and AJ are deifnite possibilities.

It's really a tough spot. You beat AQ AJ Ax but not A6 A8 or 66 or 88. I'd probably tank fold.

maccatak11 wrote:(krunchie if his opponent has the beast he will need both the aces, or an ace and a board pair thats not a 6)

you know what Macca

your right

This is a bit of a pickle indeed, as mosy players at that level dont respect position, so vilian's UTG limp-call doesnt really help you norrow his range. He could of done the same thing with the same hand from MP3!
His lead on the flop looks either weak or a cbet, but his raise represents 40% of the effective stack sizes. I dont think too many players will think you weak post when u raise. If I was villain and still read you on a steal, and I had say a set of 8s, Id flat your raise as it is fairly hard to put u on a flush draw when u raise. Had the 6 and not the A been a heart, that might be differentm as you could then have TP and a NFD.
My conclusion, he has a medium Ace (A9 or AT), and is hopin to take the pot right there representing a set or 2pair... A8 probably within his range, but A6??? then again, if he's playin A8 utg he obv doesnt care about his kicker!
As to what YOU should do, well thats another thing altogether.
Sure you could jam if you think he'll call, but a flat isnt too bad either. Flatting will probably have him thinking 'wtf?', and IP you still have control on later streets.
Plugging this into pokerstove you have ~85% equity againt the top 30% of hands, and about ~1% less if we drop his range to top 20%.
if we narrow even further to 55+ and A2s+, A2o+ you are 76.5%
None of these figures even remotely suggests a fold here.

Anyone else wanna chime in? Garth, Scott?

Re bump required tonight.

I will answer then.