You're a Bunch of Factors

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:06 am**

Full Tilt Poker Game #13466089576: Table Stanley (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 10:00:42 ET - 2009/07/18
Seat 1: AzMustang67 ($6.38)
Seat 2: muensteraner ($6.47), is sitting out
Seat 3: poasdf ($3.17)
Seat 4: charlie0821 ($3.29)
Seat 5: Maccatak11 ($13.49)
Seat 6: king_luck75 ($7.40)
poasdf posts the small blind of $0.05
charlie0821 posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Maccatak11 [Ts Th]
Maccatak11 raises to $0.35
king_luck75 folds
AzMustang67 calls $0.35
poasdf calls $0.30
charlie0821 calls $0.25
*** FLOP *** [9s 7c 9d]
poasdf checks
charlie0821 checks
Maccatak11 bets $1
AzMustang67 has 15 seconds left to act
AzMustang67 raises to $2
poasdf folds
charlie0821 calls $2
Maccatak11 calls $1
*** TURN *** [9s 7c 9d] [Tc]
charlie0821 checks
Maccatak11 checks
AzMustang67 bets $0.80
charlie0821 calls $0.80
Maccatak11 raises to $2.80
AzMustang67 raises to $4.03, and is all in
charlie0821 calls $0.14, and is all in
Maccatak11 calls $1.23
AzMustang67 shows [9h Qs]
charlie0821 shows [7h 7d]
Maccatak11 shows [Ts Th]
*** RIVER *** [9s 7c 9d Tc] [6s]
AzMustang67 shows three of a kind, Nines
Maccatak11 shows a full house, Tens full of Nines
Maccatak11 wins the side pot ($5.77) with a full house, Tens full of Nines
charlie0821 shows a full house, Sevens full of Nines
Maccatak11 wins the main pot ($9.54) with a full house, Tens full of Nines
AzMustang67 is sitting out
charlie0821 adds $4
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $16.40 Main pot $10.22. Side pot $6.18. | Rake $1.09
Board: [9s 7c 9d Tc 6s]
Seat 1: AzMustang67 (button) showed [9h Qs] and lost with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 2: muensteraner is sitting out
Seat 3: poasdf (small blind) folded on the Flop
Seat 4: charlie0821 (big blind) showed [7h 7d] and lost with a full house, Sevens full of Nines
Seat 5: Maccatak11 showed [Ts Th] and won ($15.31) with a full house, Tens full of Nines
Seat 6: king_luck75 didn't bet (folded)

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 12:52 am**

Standard.

You got lucky hitting a 2 outer after a misplayed flop...
What exactly did u think you beat after the flop raise (minraise notwithstanding) and call before it came back to you? there was atleast an overpair to yours, if not (as it turned out) better still...

But nice pot win...

btw: Not what was expected from the title

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 4:30 am**

AJG wrote:Standard.

You got lucky hitting a 2 outer after a misplayed flop...
What exactly did u think you beat after the flop raise (minraise notwithstanding) and call before it came back to you? there was atleast an overpair to yours, if not (as it turned out) better still...

But nice pot win...

btw: Not what was expected from the title

Pot on flop = $1.40.
Macca leads for $1 and is c/r to $2, BB calls $2
Pot is now worth $6.40 = Macca offered pot odds of 6.4 - 1. Who doesn't call here?

Now I think we need to set up some rules about posting hands, especially for our more experienced contributors. Two key pieces of information need to be added to this hand, what are your reads on opponents and what is your table image, or playing style previously.

As a blind player with no info and at these stakes here is how I throw it down.

SB has min c/r, he believes my in position lead at this pot is an attempt to take the pot down with what is now a marginal hand; he has a draw, middle pair or trip 9's.

What really bothers me is BB's snap call. Now the smooth call is either a str8 draw, a player who has NFI or a monster such as 9,7 (doubtful) or trip 9's with a good kicker. At no stage on the flop can you definitively put any of your opponents on any sort of hand with the information supplied. As played I would say statistics state that one of them does have something that has you beat, but it is also quite easy to say that both of them can have the str8 draw here or mid pair with a decent kicker and are making a play - HENCE why reads on opponents are crucial.

In light of the above - if we run TT through poker stove against two random opponents who are capable of playing ATC from this position.

On the flop our equity in this hand is 63.076%. Definitely good enough to make this call and hit our miracle card on the turn.

I really don't think the flop is misplayed AJG. There is definitely a range of playable hands that you do beat from this position and at these stakes. The pot odds of 6.4 to 1 are to good to lay down as the case may be that you only need to be beating these opponents and their ranges 3 times in ten to make this a profitable play.

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 10:06 am**

Might just back out slowly. Should have realised this was a poker post. Oops.

Nice score though.

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 11:46 am**

Close the blinds on your way out please Brett

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 4:55 pm**

Garth Kay wrote:SB has min c/r, he believes my in position lead at this pot is an attempt to take the pot down with what is now a marginal hand; he has a draw, middle pair or trip 9's.
No-one chk-raised? MP raised, SB folded and BB flatted...
But that notwithstanding, would you consider credit for a higher PP in his range here?

What really bothers me is BB's snap call.
What would you have done Garth? or do you mean it would've bothered you had you been in the hand?
Now the smooth call is either a str8 draw, a player who has NFI (this is how I read it) or a monster such as 9,7 (doubtful) or trip 9's with a good kicker (or possibly this). At no stage on the flop can you definitively put any of your opponents on any sort of hand with the information supplied. As played I would say statistics state that one of them does have something that has you beat, but it is also quite easy to say that both of them can have the str8 draw here or mid pair with a decent kicker and are making a play - HENCE why reads on opponents are crucial.

In light of the above - if we run TT through poker stove against two random opponents who are capable of playing ATC from this position.

On the flop our equity in this hand is 63.076%. Definitely good enough to make this call and hit our miracle card on the turn.
Thats 63% against 2 random hands... If we give either opponent credit for something that beats us (and keep the other random) it drops to between ~10 and 12% (overpair [JJ]: 9.82%, a set [92o]: 11.56%) So don't we really need more in the range of 8:1 or better to make this a +EV call? I used 92o to give the largest equity against a set, changing it to A9 really only impacts the random hand. And crazily, TT v JJ v Rnd on that flop has the random hand with almost twice the equity of the Ts! I didnt expect THAT result

I really don't think the flop is misplayed AJG.
IMO the minraise was a mistake but not a horrible one, flat or raise more imho... also, had I been the BB I would have given serious consideration to a 3bet here, trying to represent Aces or Kings, cos I dont think the raiser would fold, but I don't consider not doing so to be a mistake, only the minraise.
There is definitely a range of playable hands that you do beat from this position and at these stakes. The pot odds of 6.4 to 1 are to good to lay down as the case may be that you only need to be beating these opponents and their ranges 3 times in ten to make this a profitable play.
As you previously mentioned, there really isnt enough 'background' on the hand. Would you agree that, based on whatever read, if you felt sure u were against either a higher pair or a 9 its reasonable to fold on the flop here?

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:17 pm**

You'd fold to that flop min-raise?

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 6:13 pm**

min raise is not great, but you cant ever ever fold to a min raise after you have lead there. that would extremely weak tight.

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 7:50 pm**

A raise (even minraise) AND a call, I would certainly consider it with TT.
Maybe one is behind and making a move, but one is very likely ahead, and on that board you really only have 2 outs... Im not saying I would fold purely on those grounds alone, as Garth pointed out there are more factors to be considered, like opponents' (and your) table image etc... But I can definitely think of circumstances where I probably would have folded to the flop raise. That said, even if I was certain I needed a T to win, I might also call purely for table image and hope a scare card hits the turn, so I can then fold and not seem weak, or just chk and fold to a turn bet...

What do you do on the turn, if you don't improve?
I think AzMustang67 leading with 80c when he raised the flop, was either stupid, a probing bet, or someone with a monster begging to be called or raised so he could 3bet, the last I personally would be extremely suspicious of.
And charlie just plain f'ed up by flatting the turn with only 14c left :lol:

But say he had made a decent sized bet of $4-5 (pot is around $7.50), or decides the he will checkraise, what then?

OK, turn gave maccatak 2nd nuts, but lets say his miracle card didnt hit?
I mean, in the case no T hits the board, at what stage do you realize you're behind and surrender the pot?

charlie never had the stack to push maccatak off his hand, or really hurt him by beating him, and while AzMustang only had half macca's stack, that's still a significant loss in a single hand...

[maccatak: apologies for the 'standard' comment... I was a bit miffed and childishly reatliating to yours. 2 boats and trips in a single pot is hardly standard.]

Posted: **Sun Jul 19, 2009 7:57 pm**

AJG wrote:What do you do on the turn, if you don't improve?

Fold.

He can afford to peel one off though.

You're a Bunch of Factors

Awesome 3-way action.

Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.

Re: Awesome 3-way action.