You're a Bunch of Factors

FT of an 888pl freeroll. 7 left. I am 7th, with 10BB. Blinds 1200/2400.

I limp 98dd UTG, planning to limp shove on any raise. Folds to the SB, who completes. The BB is AJG, who checks.

Flop falls Ah Qs 6d. SB checks, AJG pauses for a few seconds and bets 5,500 into 7,200.

I snap shove.

Thoughts?

I'll post my thought process after I get a few replies. I want to see if anyone is thinking on the same line as me here.

He means me, not ALG

Oops.

there's only a K in between

Your decision should be push/fold pre-flop as these hands become very hard to play post flop on any flop where you haven't hit any draws or pairs.

The SB checking means he probably has not hit and he probably has a similar hand to you and will probably fold any bet.

AJG betting into 3/4 pot probably means you are beat. If I see a limp UTG it means you have a range of say small pair or JQ QK JK Ax(2-7) so unless he is bluffing he probably has an ace and thinks its good.

So when you shove he probably thinks you have either the Ax or possibly 66 (although unlikely as you prb woulda raised/pushed pre with 66) Depending on stack sizes and pot odds, an ace/queen might justify a call.

I am folding this preflop 70% of the time and pushing 30% of the time.

This one is simple. Push pre-flop or fold.

I posted at 2am and on further thought I think that he would have to put you on suited connectors given your limp. You should be pushing Ax, JQ, QK, KJ K10 Q10 so a limp probably means you have suite connectors.

So your snap shove would be for about 21k over a pot already worth 12.7k is that right

im not entirely conviced that would be enough to make him fold, but i think i see where your coming from

to me the 3/4 pot bet screams of a queen and probably a weak one at that, so you are hoping he will put you on a weak ace with your over shove and have to fold

not a bad idea but as i said im not entirely sure if 2x the pot will be enough to make him fold his queen, you havent given me any information on his stack size so its difficult to read him here.

My stack size before the hand: 24k.

AJG's (after posting BB): 27k.

Will post my thought process later in the day.

Given these stack sizes, if he's hit A/Q (and he probably has with the 3/4 pot bet) then he'll call your push. Fold pre-flop. As played fold to the bet.