You're a Bunch of Factors

From what i can remember i havent posted too many bad beats,
everyone else seems to so here is mine.

To set the scene, keep in mind that before the hand in question i have played 5 or 6 non blind hands for the entire night and none past the flop other that 2, and we were down to the final 12 so it was a tight night for me.
The 2 that i played were both pocket aces both i ended up all in and both ended up with a set and the chips to me. (funily enough both pocket aces were big blind)

so we are 12 left of 40 odd, blinds at 1k 2k.

I am big blind with about 10 k or so, utg has aprox 15k ,
utg +1 has 10k

i get [ks js]
utg calls, utg+1 calls. we get 3 folders and a all in 2k raise from the small blind.
I call as does utg and utg+1

Flop comes [qs 9s ad]

i check, as does utg. Utg+1 bets 2k and gets a call from me and utg

Turn [as] ok i have hit nut flush i go in for my remaining 6k
get called all in, by out of turn by utg +1

utg tanks for ages ( now keep in mind this one of the riverlands best players )
utg calls.

so we have 3 all ins

and we have table cards of [qs 9s ad as]
so we flip
utg [qd 8s] wtf
utg+1 [5s 7s]
small blind i cant rememember but it was not important
me [ks js]


at this stage we are down to 11 and its 35k pot

river is [ah]

and thats me out 9th along with 2 others with less chips.

needless to say i dont know how our infomous UTG ended up,
as i walked home soon after to blow of some steam.

thats a bad one. still 4 outs for him though

edit 4 outs, 8%

The UTG eventually went on to win the night (thats 3 for this season so far)

I must say it was one of the most boring final tables I have ever seen, the winner at no stage looked like being beaten. It was call call check check all the time with very little aggression by the other players except for Ian, were they giving too much respect to Ian and not playing there hand on merit,

Had another "frustrating" Beat last night playing on a nameless internet site.

$3 knockout game, 90 starters. I was sitting around 10k in chips putting me 12th of 22.

Im small blind [ks qd] , all fold round to me, i complete the blind (bb 400)

Big blind raises to 1200, i eventually call.

Flop comes [kc 9c qs]

I lead out with 1200 and get raised to 6000.

This throws me a bit as i had him on AJ or AQ or somesuch, couldnt see him raising preflop with J 10.

Eventually i decide to jam as the call would only leave me with 1200 so i re raise all in, to 7500 approx.

he calls and show [Ac 10c]

ok fair call to him (sort of ! ), he has a straight draw and a flush draw.

Turn [As] Flop [10d]

Now i was fully expecting to go out once i saw all his outs but i didnt see that one coming, runner runner to give 2 pair, would of been kinder to finish me with a straight or a flush.

Im Looking to see how i could have played it differently guys.

Should have i gone harder after the flop than my 3x raise etc etc, or should i not have been in the hand at all.

thats bad luck krunchie

if you have a K or a Q, and his ace is live, then he has 15 outs and he is 60% to win the hand.

if you have a set or 2 pair or AA, then he is drawing to 12 outs or around 48% to win the hand.

against something like KJ or QJ then he would have had 11 outs or 44%

if you had an underpair, then he has 18 outs. and is over 70% to win.

JJ = 13 outs and 52% to win

so although he beat you the backdoor way with the 2 pair, he was probably in front against most of your hand range, and 50/50 if you happened to hit the board in a big way.

i would probably have made the same move he did.

note - if you have any clubs in your hand, the outs go down by 1 or 2, but i am probably still taking that race in the late stages of a tourney.

Ok benny the cunt, can you do some maths for me?

I had this bloke saying I got lucky to win a hand, and I kept telling him I was in front the WHOLE time. Can you confirm?

I have [ac] [7c]. He has [7s 5s]

Flop came down [7d 2s 4s]

I can't see how he's in front. Turn & River didn't help him, and he was saying I got so lucky to win.

I just razzed him up the whole time until I won the SnG.

ok,

not including the backdoor straight draws (3-6 , A-3 and 6-8), there were 9 flush cards, and 3 5s in the deck that he was drawing to.

this gives a total of 12 outs.

an easy way to work out approximate percentages, is 2*(number of outs)*(number of streets to come)

so with the turn and river to come, he would be approximately 2*12*2 = 48% to win the hand.

would those three runner-runner draws give him greater than a 2% shot?

i would probably think so - he may well be slightly in front but its a coin flip.

His argument falls down straight away, as he was behind pre-flop

You are about 75 percent pre-flop (ignoring suits).

bennymacca wrote:thats bad luck krunchie


if you have a set or 2 pair or AA, then he is drawing to 12 outs or around 48% to win the hand.

Im not to proud to admidt that calculating odds isnt my strong point, but i am trying to teach my self a bit.

in the above example how did you come about with 12 outs.

I did a rough count and i got 18 ( 3xaces, 3x 10s, 8 x clubs and 4 x jacks)

where am i going wrong !

this is how i calculated the outs

if you have AA or 2 pair, then his ace is no good any more. so he is not drawing to this (i haven't counted running Ace-10, that gets complicated)

so this means, he has 9 flush cards (13 - 2 on the board - 2 in his hand)

there are 4 Jacks in the deck as well

so you are right, it should be 13 outs, not 12. ill edit it as well.


the aces and tens weren't counted because a single ace or a 10 coming off will not give him the winning hand. he needs both of them.

him catching running aces or an ace and a 10 on the turn and river is approximately a 1 in 220 occurrence, so when calculating approximate odds, u dont take that into consideration