AJG wrote:Not at alll... hence the prefix 'I hesitate to mention this'. This is exactly some of the examples people have cited for backing the position that online poker is rigged.... And one of this things I mentioned (but not specifically) in a follow up post you have read in another thread...
What are the chances of flopping quads twice within 100,000 hands let alone 30 minutes, AND the same rank? I also said I dont buy into their arguments, I have other explanations*, but thought it worth saying anyway...
with your knowledge of statistics, you should realise that each shuffle is independent of a previous shuffle. just because one unlikely event happens, it has the same probability of occuring the very next hand.
i have seen 2 royals in half an hour. i have been dealt pocket aces 3 times in a row. i have seen, whilst playing on 888, at least 4 times where a flop has been 888.

but just because one has occured, there isn't some rule that says another one shouldn't happen for a long time. you make these connections in your brain because they are significant hands - you forget those times where the flop was 6 9 2 twice in a row, because it is not significant.
even if the deals are comprimised, why would it be quads twice in a row? you yourself showed that even with a 64 bit machine, you can generate 1.8*10^19 deals. having quads twice in half an hour is still pretty unlikely with this type of number dont you say?
it is human nature to look for patterns, it is how we make sense of the world. even when there are no patterns.
AJG wrote:*also the possibility on smaller sites such as 888 that there is a single process providing all the shuffles which would increase the likelyhood of this type of thing happening, rather than one for each table (or a smaller number)
for what its worth, 888 have the biggest casino in the world attached to them. so i dare say they would have some sort of decent shuffling techniques, and they probably even deal more cards than the poker sites!