Hand advice.

[bennymacca]

this is long, mostly to prove to bruce how uber uber uber tight play cannot and will not make you a winning poker, ever. maybe in NPL where you can fold, but in any sort of "real" poker game, it will never work.

1.what are the odds of 89 off winning against another person holding AK off??? in this case you go in with 6BB worth

you are right on this one bruce, it is about 40% for you to win

2.what are the odds of you winning when you hold AA, but because you folded down and only have 2BB, there are 5 callers when you go all in?

i ran this on poker stove last night - against any 2 random cards, from 5 callers, your chances to win are only 40% !!!!!

3.how much do you win in each case?

if you go in with 6BB in the first instance, and win, you will win 12BB as there is only 1 caller.

in the second case, you will win 12BB as well - 2BB from each player.

4.what is your expected value in each case?

These expectation values do not take into account fold equity

your expectation for the first hand is 0.4*12 = 4BB

your expectation for the second hand, AT BEST is 0.4*12 = 4BB

i.e your expectation value for each is the same!!!

5.what are the chances you get aces compared to any two other cards?

sorry bruce, its a lot less likely than that mate

its 4/52 * 3/51 = 1/221 to get aces.

6. what are the differences in fold equity between the first and second cases.

this is where it gets interesting.

fold equity is the amount of money you win through your opponent folding and you taking the pot without you going to showdown.

i.e if you have a big enough stack to put them all in, then you have a lot of fold equity. if you have a small stack and you push all in, then you have no fold equity, because its not costing the other players much at all to try and knock you out.

in the first instance above, you still have some fold equity. the other player is going to call your all in with AT BEST the top 30% of hands. this means that 70% of the time, this player is folding, and you pick up the pot straight away.

the other 30% of the time, you have on average a 40% chance of winning (assuming your cards are live)

lets assume that you are on the button and the person that has to make the call is in the BB. so there is 2.5BB in the pot at the moment, including antes.

thus, your actual EV in the hand is 0.7*2.5 + 0.4*0.3*12 = 3.19

the EV for the aces is 4.0 assuming there are always 5 callers with your 2BB stack.


the the expectation is higher for aces than it is for bluffing earlier with any two cards.


now comes the most important part bruce.

what are the chances of getting aces when you have 2BB left? well, lets relax that a little - lets say you are only going all in with the top 5% of hands.

this means your EV is actually 0.05*4 = 0.2, compared with an equity of 3.19 if you jam with any 2.

tell me which one is better here????

tell me?.(same?)..

BennyJAM Vs the Bruce fold...monies in my pocket

UR still living in hope the
River card may hit = to me =Chip and Chair vs a Prayer..?

see what you dont understand, is that you are not just coin flipping off your stack willy nilly. the reason you make an aggressive move before you get too short stacked, is that people will fold most of the time, and you can pick up a small pot and build your stack. something that never happens when you play.

nb I've noted a folding target like me seems to attrack the any two cards / lets bluff bruce he will fold --- type of player .. these type of jammers are easy meat when you have winning cards..

bruce, i wonder how many times you folded the best hand to me (i.e mid or bottom pair) and let me take a small pot.

i also wonder how many times i have paid you off when you have had a good hand - i mean losing all my chips to you.

well i can tell you now, i have never lost all my chips to you bruce, and unless you change your game, i never will.

My stats vs yours
pic your own critirea anyseason u like/another heads up m8?/OPSA if your game!!!

bruce, if you count play money heads up as "beating me", then i think we need to raise the stakes a little. i would LOVE to see you playing in the OPSA thing that des has set up.

[Des]

[stevo]

in the first instance above, you still have some fold equity. the other player is going to call your all in with AT BEST the top 30% of hands. this means that 70% of the time, this player is folding, and you pick up the pot straight away.

Nice post, although I reckon the BB wouldn't call with only top 30% of hands here. If they are a good player (which might be an incorrect assumption ) they should be calling with almost an two cards, if I was BB here I would be calling with ATC. Blinds and Antes would be 29K plus 20K all-in makes it 49K in the pot and as the BB I only have to put in 6K which lays me pot odds of about 1:8. Unless I am severely dominated here as the BB (i.e. KK against my KQ, in which case I am about a 1:13 dog I think), which is unlikely, I am at worst about a 1:4 dog so I still have the odds to make the call of the UTG all-in.

Having said that this is still a definite push from AK's point of view, no point waiting around for a better hand here, 89o is definitely good enough to push in this situation.

[bennymacca]

Nice post, although I reckon the BB wouldn't call with only top 30% of hands here. If they are a good player (which might be an incorrect assumption ) they should be calling with almost an two cards, if I was BB here I would be calling with ATC. Blinds and Antes would be 29K plus 20K all-in makes it 49K in the pot and as the BB I only have to put in 6K which lays me pot odds of about 1:8. Unless I am severely dominated here as the BB (i.e. KK against my KQ, in which case I am about a 1:13 dog I think), which is unlikely, I am at worst about a 1:4 dog so I still have the odds to make the call of the UTG all-in.

Having said that this is still a definite push from AK's point of view, no point waiting around for a better hand here, 89o is definitely good enough to push in this situation.

you are right steve. i wasn't necessarily talking about this situation, but in general.

AK only had 1.5ish BBs, so he has to shove with 89, and he has to assume that the BB is instacalling.

this is because he has no fold equity any more.

easier said than done, but it may have been better to make a move earlier.

but then again, bennyjamming is frought with danger

i think in general, i overestimate the fold equity that i have, especially against passive players that will call and then call a raise with most of their limping hands.

[stevo]

Yeah how come you didn't push earlier AK? Or did you lose a hand or two earlier and get left with an extremely short stack?

[maccatak11]

i think in general, i overestimate the fold equity that i have, especially against passive players that will call and then call a raise with most of their limping hands.

thats because often your table image is very very ordinary. you value bet good hands and jam bad ones and everybody knows it.

4 out of 5 other players might have better fold equity than you in a particular situation, but because of your 'bennyjamming' reputation people are much much more likely to call you down. This is probably why you do better at state finals then you do at your own home games.

heaps of times we hear the story of 'how can you call me down with middle pair on that board'? its cos you can't let go of a pot. my belief is that its sometimes much better to check down with a missed draw (not everytime, but just sometimes) in order to preserve a tight table image and pick some better spots to bluff at a missed draw later on.


(just re-read that and it sounds harsh, but im not gonna change it - he needs to know)

[bennymacca]

thats because often your table image is very very ordinary. you value bet good hands and jam bad ones and everybody knows it.

4 out of 5 other players might have better fold equity than you in a particular situation, but because of your 'bennyjamming' reputation people are much much more likely to call you down. This is probably why you do better at state finals then you do at your own home games.

heaps of times we hear the story of 'how can you call me down with middle pair on that board'? its cos you can't let go of a pot. my belief is that its sometimes much better to check down with a missed draw (not everytime, but just sometimes) in order to preserve a tight table image and pick some better spots to bluff at a missed draw later on.


(just re-read that and it sounds harsh, but im not gonna change it - he needs to know)

wow, way to be a tool.

reputations are one thing, but you know that i play tighter than the reputation. everyone has brain farts sometimes, myself more than others.

when was the last time i said "wow how can you call me down on mid pair"

i never said that i am a perfect player either, just that i believe an over-aggressive approach, while not perfect, is better than a passive aproach. somewhere in the middle is definitely optimum


so in short, get your head out of your arse.

[maccatak11]

got a nibble....

[Scotty]

He's a tool for that post? Wow.

[bennymacca]

He's a tool for that post? Wow.

he knows he is stirring, i know he is stirring, so yes he is being a tool