$10 Deepstack, QQ UTG, facing huge raise from the blinds.

[JMACK007]

+2

[Larx36]

OK guys let's do some maths then but first let's agree on the possible ways the hand could play out.

One move is to re-raise all in. Then the maths look like so:
EV = [(% of time he folds) * 1400] + [(% of time he calls)*Equity*20,000]

After the flop you are in position and let's assume a 60% c-bet of 1632 (Pot:2720). On what boards are we continuing and what's the plan for later streets?

WTF?.... you lost me at OK

David when you re-raise all in there are two things he can do - fold or call. The overall expected value is the weighted averages of expected values of each possibility. So let's say if we re-raise all in and he folds 60% of the time then:
EV(fold) = 60% * Current pot
= .6 * 1400
= 840

The other 40% of the time he calls and you have a certain amount of equity over a total pot of $20,000. Thus:

EV = (% of time he calls) * Equity vs Calling Range * 20,000
= 40% * [Equity of QQ v KK+,AK] * 20,000
= .40 * .40 * 20,000
= 3200

So for your reraise 8640 you will win 840 if he folds and 3200 if he calls. Therefore:

Overall EV = 840 + 3200 - 8640
= -4600

So if you expect he calls your reraise all in only 40% of the time then this is a very negative EV play. We can also find out the minimum calling % value to make this +EV (given he only calls with KK,AA,AK) by letting the % of times he calls equal Z, then:

(1-Z)*1400 + Z * .4 * 20,000 - 8640 > 0
1400 - 1400Z + 8000Z > 8640
6600Z > 7240
Z > 1.10

But Z can only be between 0 and 1, you can't call 110% of the time! So this is never a +EV move.

Thank you for trying to clarify that Trishan but I think it's out of my maths league mate.I do appreciate your effort.

Even if I were able to remember the calculations I think that by the time I got out my calculator,paper and pencil I would have had time called on me before I had the answer.