Skill in Poker - Empirical Evidence
Posted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 4:23 pm
i stumbled across an article that referenced a report that had a statistical analysis of poker players, with the amount of hands played, and the winrate, as a measure of whether poker is a game or skill or chance.
i thought it was very interesting. i tried to find the original paper, but i couldn't unless i paid for it, but i did find this presentation. for those that dont have a mathematical background it might be a little heavy going, but i thought it was interesting in general at how the confidence interval for the win rate changed with the amount of hands played.
if i am reading the paper right, is says that 99.7% of players lose all of their bankroll before they play 1658 hands.
slide 15 is the most interesting, especially where is says that a CRF of 100k is not unlikely.
this is the grey area in the eyes of many people. not IF poker is a game of skill, but when does it become a game of skill, and whether the average player can be expected to put in that many hands. i.e for the grinders, and a lot of us that play regularly, poker IS a game of skill, but for the person that might only ever put $100 online, put it all on 1 table, and see what happens, it is most definitely a game of chance. and thats where the legal uncertainty comes in.
i thought it was very interesting. i tried to find the original paper, but i couldn't unless i paid for it, but i did find this presentation. for those that dont have a mathematical background it might be a little heavy going, but i thought it was interesting in general at how the confidence interval for the win rate changed with the amount of hands played.
if i am reading the paper right, is says that 99.7% of players lose all of their bankroll before they play 1658 hands.
slide 15 is the most interesting, especially where is says that a CRF of 100k is not unlikely.
this is the grey area in the eyes of many people. not IF poker is a game of skill, but when does it become a game of skill, and whether the average player can be expected to put in that many hands. i.e for the grinders, and a lot of us that play regularly, poker IS a game of skill, but for the person that might only ever put $100 online, put it all on 1 table, and see what happens, it is most definitely a game of chance. and thats where the legal uncertainty comes in.
