You're a Bunch of Factors

Ok. I believe it finally.

Last 6 big buy-in tournies i've been in over last 6 weeks. (ive been only playing the Sunday warm up $750,000 and i play my AAA+++ game)

Busted with JJ five times now.

Last night had a brain fart and it cost me a couple short of the money when i had av stack.

Last week i was 45th with 230 left and i did it again.

My brain says "DONT DO IT!!!! ALERT ALERT ALERT!!!!"

And as i reach up to hit fold, a monster inside me takes over and puts me all in. (damn him!)

Sat night i thought i had learnt when i laid down QQ pre flop and he showed his Aces. I was soooo proud of me then this happenned again, when will i learn?

do you happen to remember howmany times you have seen JJ and won.

Would be interesting to keep an acurate record

I still believe over time JJ would win more than lose, but because we all choose to shove with them more often than not, when they lose they lose huge and we are usually out of what ever tourney we play- Hence the aminosity towards them.

Imo, people overvalue pocket Jacks, the same as many tend to do with suited cards. A painted pair! yay... One important thing to remember is the ~58% chance of an overcard on the flop, and if our raise is called, it is quite likely a caller (especially if more than one) will have an overcard, although obviously not neccessarily the one that falls, if indeed one does.
It seems, that people tend to attribute a greater difference in strength between JJ and TT than say, 88 and 77, although as you will see below, this is not the case.
Also people also tend to loathe laying them down to a single overcard, say a K74r flop. If you had pocket 7s, raised and BB called and the flop was Ac 6d 3s, I think most people would be more likely to fold to a strong flop bet in that scenario than with JJ... However if we run (through Pokerstove) that flop, with A2o+ v 77 then JJ, we see 9.89% and 8.53% equities respectively!

Using Pokerstove to compute preflop equity of PPs versus a random hand, I plotted a chart of the difference between sucessive pairs, ie in the chart AA has 2.8% more equity then KK (v a random hand), and KK has 2.47% more equity than QQ...

Interestingly the data (shown solid blue) shows TT-JJ the lowest point, indicating the least difference between them in equity, and also a greater increase in equity from 22-33 than KK-AA!
The trend-line (shown dashed red) has a global minima around JJ-QQ, but remember it is a trend NOT the data, and QQ has ~15% less chance of flopping an overcard. The trendline also clearly shows that the greatest differences in equity occur at the extremes of High or Low PPs.
While these differences may be small, they clealy demonstrate both a non-linearity in equity increase with rank increase, and a 'dip': lowest at TT-JJ.

the equity data is interesting, but i am going to take you to task on something in your post.

AJG wrote:It seems, that people tend to attribute a greater difference in strength between JJ and TT than say, 88 and 77, although as you will see below, this is not the case.
Also people also tend to loathe laying them down to a single overcard, say a K74r flop. If you had pocket 7s, raised and BB called and the flop was Ac 6d 3s, I think most people would be more likely to fold to a strong flop bet in that scenario than with JJ... However if we run (through Pokerstove) that flop, with A2o+ v 77 then JJ, we see 9.89% and 8.53% equities respectively!

you are right in that JJ and 77 have different equities up against an ace, but there are also lots of pocket pair combinations that JJ beats that 77 doesn't

can you run the following for me? same flop, but change the opponents range from A2o+ only, to A2o+, A2s+, 66+

that would be interesting. i am not saying i disagree with your post, and if i had stove here at work i would run it, but i am just interested.

Sure.
Actually, I intended A2o+ to include A2s+... but this only changes the figures to 9.81% and 8.46%... my Bad

OK: on Ac 6d 3s against A2o+, A2s+, 66+
JJ = 19.91% (+10.02%)
77 = 9.96% (+1.43%)

However, my point was about people being concerned with the overcard being paired in someones hand. It wasnt intended to cover all scenarios where you were beat, as a higher pocket pair in many circumstance is somewhat of a cooler... Also some of the hands you mention that indeed JJ is ahead of pre but 77 isn't may also be concerned about the Ace being paired...

krunchie wrote:do you happen to remember howmany times you have seen JJ and won.

Would be interesting to keep an acurate record

I still believe over time JJ would win more than lose, but because we all choose to shove with them more often than not, when they lose they lose huge and we are usually out of what ever tourney we play- Hence the aminosity towards them.

I see what you are saying Krunch, i say that to people who complain about losing on AA, i do win with them more than i lose, its just that im NEVER going all-in with them late in a tourny again.

I HAVE learnt now.

Well JJ has been good to me online and hit pay dirt 4 times yesterday However, tonite on a CBI game we were down into the points as the bubble had burst and look down at JJ.

Thinking these must be my lucky cards this week amd the blinds at $1k/$2k and I'm on the button so I count down my stack to $8.5k and shove allin.

Michael G in SB has only $2.5k and calls Heather in BB calls. I roll my Jacks, Michael G turns AK off and the lovely Heather who I hate being on the same table with turns over QQ.

Her Queens held up and Michael finished in the points in 16th place and me 15th.

How is 16th in the points?

They actually point from 16th and cash from 5th place benny the cunt. No rake 100% to players