waikerie heros

[Todd Rivers]

This must be the reason you keep losing at poker Nathan, you keep getting your odds wrong.

If you are a 1 in 6 chance to hit your card/s, your odds are 5-1 (not 6-1)

Are you getting the picture yet?

Also remember this, if you haven't hit the board on the flop, and you are holding AQ, and i push with AK and you call, you will lose MOST times!

[bennymacca]

todd, you are mixing odds and probability, which is wrong

if there are 221 combinations, and aces are one of them, then the chances are 1 in 221

your odds are correct - you would need to be paid 220:1 (assuming you get your $1 back), the saying the odds of getting a hand, you are actually describing probability.

does that make sense?

[AceLosesKing]

I like Aces.

[Todd Rivers]

todd, you are mixing odds and probability, which is wrong

if there are 221 combinations, and aces are one of them, then the chances are 1 in 221

your odds are correct - you would need to be paid 220:1 (assuming you get your $1 back), the saying the odds of getting a hand, you are actually describing probability.

does that make sense?

Arrrrrrgggghhhh!!! Probabilities, chances, combinations.......

all i said is the ODDS of getting pocket Aces (or any pocket pair for that matter) is 220 -1. That is correct and this is poker odds every professional knows and uses.

Now will someone who knows what they are talking about please back me up here.

[Todd Rivers]

By the way Macca, after you left 2day, i took out 6 players in a row and hit final table with 95k!
Then i played 1 hand until heads up and Aleesha got dealt A-x five hands in a row, and AA to finish me off! Got Sarah though for all her 19k in one hand so the whole day was was worth it just 4 that!

[maccatak11]

Nice work toddy. No sign of 'just me' today either. part of the reason i drove up to renny today (besides the shopping) was to see if the pot would be stirred any further.

[David]

"odds" can be represented either way.

11-1, or $10, for example. Doesn't matter.

[stevo]

Odds and probability are slightly different from a purely mathematical point of view, although they both can be used to describe the 'chance' of something happening. The mathematical definitions are something like:

Probability of 'x' = Number of outcomes of 'x' / Total number of possible outcomes

Odds of 'x' = Number of outcomes of 'x' / Number of outcomes that are not 'x'

Probability is usually represented as a percentage or something like 1 in 221 (or 1 out of 221 if you like). Funnily enough odds are usually represented as a ratio against something happening (i.e. something like 220:1 or 220-1, which means there is 1 outcome where 'x' occurs and there are 220 where outcome 'x' does not occur). Representing the odds as being against something happening only switches the order of the numbers around and doesn't actually effect the values (or the ratio) themselves.

So....

The odds of being dealt AA is 220:1 (i.e. 220 to 1), again strictly speaking this is actually the odds against being dealt AA but as this is how we would usually represent the odds we will stick with that.

and the probability of being dealt AA is 1 in 221 (or 1 out of 221, which is probably more explicit), or about 0.45%.

Odds and probability can both be used to describe the 'chance' of something happening however they aren't strictly the same thing, the problem is that people mix them up and use them thinking they are the same when there is actually a slight difference.

Sorry for the maths rant, but hopefully that clears things up.

[bennymacca]

thanks stevo, this is what i was trying to get across, but you have explained it much better than i did.

[Todd Rivers]

So....

The odds of being dealt AA is 220:1 (i.e. 220 to 1)

thanks stevo, this is what i was trying to get across, but you have explained it much better than i did.